Poker Hand Matchup: David Ha vs. Shawn Daniels
David Ha	Win Pre-Flop	Win Post-Flop	Win Post-Turn
Starting Stack: 3,900,000	15.78 %	8.99 %	18.18 %
Shawn Daniels	Win Pre-Flop	Win Post-Flop	Win Post-Turn
Starting Stack: 2,400,000	83.95 %	91.01 %	81.82 %	Winner!

Posted On: Apr 07, 2025

Outcome

Preflop, with five players remaining and blinds of 50,000-100,000 with a big blind ante of 100,000, David Ha limped in from the small blind. Shawn Daniels raised to 250,000 from the big blind, and Ha called. On the flop Ha checked, and Daniels bet 125,000. Ha check-raised to 400,000. Daniels called. On the turn Ha checked, and Daniels bet 250,000. Ha called. On the river Ha bet 400,000, and Daniels called.

Analysis

Ha chose to limp from the small blind, though most ICM configurations see the small blind, as the second-biggest stack, do a lot more raising than limping against a short-stacked big blind. 10-7 offsuit is a hand that mixes raising and limping here, though Ha should raise at a much higher frequency. If Ha had raised, this hand would’ve been over preflop and he would have lost a few big blinds instead of 1.3 million. After limping, he faced a raise from Daniels’ queens and chose to call. Solver analysis suggests that the expected value of calling, folding, or raising is indifferent, given that the big blind’s raising range should be extremely polar. A fold would have been preferable as Ha’s stack was close to Eric Afriat’s (31 big blinds) and Paul Richardson’s (30 big blinds) and he would prefer to keep a buffer between himself and them. Given the tournament situation, this is a spot he just didn’t have to take. On the king-high flop, Daniels opted to continuation-bet 125,000 into 600,000. Checking back would have made more sense, however, as he had more than enough value to comfortably call off two streets. Ha then decided to raise his double backdoor draws to 400,000. Given his vulnerable stack, he had great odds to just call, or possibly even fold. On the nine turn, Ha might have considered double barreling, as he would with jacks, sixes, and sometimes spades. Instead, he chose to check. Daniels fired a very small bet, presumably for equity denial and as a block in an attempt to get to the river cheaply. Ha couldn’t fold his open-ender and got to the river with just 10-high. Knowing he couldn’t win without betting, he put out a 20% donk bet, which in hindsight was way too small and didn’t put enough pressure on Daniels. This turning point of a hand proved costly for Ha. While Daniels moved from fifth to second in chips, Ha moved in the exact opposite direction and eventually finished fifth for $69,000.