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Poker Hand Matchup: Maicon Gasperin vs. Martin Arce

Swords K 8 4 6 8

Maicon Gasperin

Win Pre-Flop Win Post-Flop Win Post-Turn

Starting Stack: 7,178,817

K J

49.45 %

89.6 %

0.0 %

Martin Arce

Win Pre-Flop Win Post-Flop Win Post-Turn

Starting Stack: 5,861,772

6 6

50.11 %

10.4 %

100.0 %

Winner!

Posted On: Oct 27, 2020


Outcome

Preflop, with 36 players remaining in the event, a seven-handed table, and blinds of 100,000-200,000 with an ante of 25,000, Maicon Gasperin raised to 400,000 from early position. Martin Arce called from the big blind. On the flop Arce checked. Gasperin bet 250,386. Arce called. On the turn Arce bet 393,943. Gasperin raised to 1,173,951. Arce called. On the river Arce bet 1,294,813. Gasperin called.

Analysis

When the final day of the 2020 WSOP Online $5,000 buy-in no-limit hold’em main event began, there were 38 players left with a shot at the championship bracelet. Everyone had locked up at least a $39,214 payday, but surely all eyes were on the top prize of $3,904,686. In this hand, Brazil’s Maicon Gasperin picked up K-J suited and raised from early position. Argentina’s Martin Arce defended his big blind with pocket sixes and checked on a flop with two overcards to his pair. Gasperin made a smallish continuation bet of around one-fourth pot and Arce stuck around for the turn, which gave him a set of sixes. Arce opted to seize the betting lead, firing 393,943 into the pot of 1,575,772. Arce might have passed up the opportunity to check-raise his newly improved holding with the hope that his bet might appear to just be a stab at the pot with a weaker hand after floating the flop. However, Gasperin reacted to Arce’s lead by raising with his top pair and a medium-strength kicker. Arce made the call and the 8´ on the river gave him sixes full of eights. He value bet around one-third the size of the pot and Gasperin went into the tank. The bet represented roughly a quarter of his remaining chips, but he was being laid around 4:1 on a call. While he would beat Arce’s bluffs, could he beat any value bets? Would Arce perhaps lead the turn with a holding like K™ X™, having picked up the flush draw to go along with his top pair without a premium kicker? In that situation, would Arce sometimes go for value with his top pair on the end despite the second pair from the flop having improved to trips? Or might he just have taken this line with K-10 or K-9 offsuit? Gasperin ultimately made the call and got the bad news. He fell toward the bottom of the chip counts and finished 35th for $55,880. Arce went on to place 25th for $79,625.

 
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