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Poker Hand Matchup: Daniel Smyth vs. Manig Loeser

Swords K J 2 Q 5

Daniel Smyth

Win Pre-Flop Win Post-Flop Win Post-Turn

Starting Stack: 35,700,000

2 2

50.53 %

83.43 %

90.91 %

Winner!

Manig Loeser

Win Pre-Flop Win Post-Flop Win Post-Turn

Starting Stack: 67,400,000

Q 9

48.33 %

16.57 %

9.09 %

Posted On: Sep 01, 2020


Outcome

Preflop, with two players remaining and blinds of 350,000-700,000 and an ante of 87,500, Daniel Smyth limped in from the button. Manig Loeser checked his option in the big blind. On the flop Loeser bet 1,100,000. Smyth raised to 3,500,000. Loeser called. On the turn Loeser checked. Smyth bet 5,300,000. Loeser called. On the river Loeser checked. Smyth moved all-in for 26,600,000. Loeser called.

Analysis

Ireland’s Daniel Smyth won his way into this World Poker Tour championship event via a $33 buy-in satellite. He parlayed that small initial investment into a $3,200 buy-in for this event, which drew a total of 1,035 entries. Smyth managed to survive to the final table to guarantee himself a five-figure payday in this tournament, but he undoubtedly had his eyes on the title and the first-place payout worth multiple hundreds of thousands of dollars. He knocked out João Maureli in third place to enter heads-up play with Manig Loeser, a German pro with more than $11.2 million in prior live tournament scores. Smyth, on the other hand, had just over $20,000 in live cashes to his name. Despite the experience gap, Smyth was ultimately able to come out on top. In this hand he limped in from the button with pocket deuces and Loeser checked with Q-9 offsuit. Loeser picked up a gutshot straight draw on the K-J-2 with two diamonds flop. Loeser attempted to seize the betting lead by firing 1.1 million. Smyth raised to 3.5 million in position with his bottom set, likely trying to extract value from hands like weak top pairs and draws. Loeser elected to call and the turn brought the Q´ to put a second flush draw on the board while giving Loeser second pair. He checked to Smyth, who fired another barrel for 5.3 million. Loeser called and the river brought the 5®. Loeser checked with his second pair, likely just hoping to see a cheap showdown. Smyth instead moved all-in for 26.6 million into a pot of 19.1 million. With two flush draws and possible straight draws missing on the river, Loeser likely figured that there were enough bluffs in Smyth’s range to go along with his strong value hands that could raise the flop and then bet turn and shove river. He made the call with his second pair looking to catch a bluff, but Smyth showed a set to take down the pot and move into the lead. Smyth went on to secure the title and the top prize of $413,391, while Loeser earned $279,359 as the runner-up finisher.

 
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