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Poker Hand Matchup: Mike Watson vs. Philipp Gruissem

Swords 3 2 2 5 7

Mike Watson (Palatine, IL, USA)

Win Pre-Flop Win Post-Flop Win Post-Turn

Starting Stack: 39,000

8 2

50.49 %

84.04 %

86.36 %


Philipp Gruissem

Win Pre-Flop Win Post-Flop Win Post-Turn

Starting Stack: 279,000

5 6

45.0 %

15.66 %

13.64 %

Posted On: May 13, 2014


Preflop, with the blinds at 4,000 and 8,000 and a 1,000 ante, Gruissem raised to 16,000, and Watson called in the big blind. On the flop Watson checked, Gruissem bet 22,000, and Watson called and was all-in.


Play proceeded one off the bubble, with the field just two eliminations away from a guaranteed €46,150 payday. Watson held just 30,000 in his stack after posting his blind and ante as he faced the min-raise from his aggressive opponent. With 36,000 in the pot and only 8,000 more to call, Watson could not turn down the tempting 4.5 : 1 pot odds in spite of his unappealing hole cards. He may have reasoned that since he was already running on fumes, he could still afford to call this raise, fold if necessary, and post his small blind the subsequent hand after which he would enjoy full orbit in which the bubble might burst. Knowing he would probably miss the flop 2/3’s of the time Watson pursued the pot odds in a gamble to chip up on the bubble, aware of the danger. After all, the extra 8,000 wasn’t really impacting his chip position or compromising his fold equity on an upcoming hand, and he could still squeak into the money. Watson caught a welcome flop with trips, and checked it over to trap Gruissem who applied tournament life pressure. Gruissem was not drawing dead though, a four would have filled his inside straight draw and a repeating Five after the turn would have given Gruissem a winning boat. Watson faded the six outs on the river, earning a key double up which he was able to ladder into a 22nd place finish for €56,700.


over 6 years ago

Good reminder, always check the blinds chip stack before raising. I personally like a bigger raise or fold, givin the big blinds chip stack.


over 6 years ago

once in awhile you have to just take a chance, he is suited and this is a game of variance.

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