Two of the wildest players in high-stakes cash game history squared off yet again on Hustler Casino Live’s Million Dollar Cash Game III. Although the buy-in was lowered to $500,000 for the series’ second session, that didn’t stop Mike “Texas Mike” Moncek and Alan Keating from playing in a series of massive pots.
In one particular hand, Moncek got the best of Keating. He made a fantastic hero call to take down a $363,500 pot. However, despite making over $1.5 million on Day 1 of the eye-watering series, he blew it all and then some on Day 2, taking a wild $1.72 million loss.
$130K BLUFF by
Mister_Keating</a>! <br><br>Can <a href="https://twitter.com/TexasMike2014?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">TexasMike2014 make the hero call?!? pic.twitter.com/7N2rnhDgLh— Hustler Casino Live (@HCLPokerShow) May 1, 2025
Action
The table was five-handed, with stakes of $500-$1,000, a $2,000 big blind ante, and a $2,000 under-the-gun straddle.
Keating raised to $10,000 from the button with A
K. Moncek called from the straddle with 10
9
.
The flop came Q
107. Keating bet $10,000 and Moncek called.
The turn brought the 4. Keating bet $30,000 and Moncek called.
The river was the 6. Keating bet $130,000 and Moncek called.
Moncek won $363,500 with a pair of tens.
Analysis
Keating and Moncek were both playing about 1,800 big blinds deep and are two of the VPIP gods of poker. In other words, they were sure to battle in some big pots.
Keating woke up with a monster on the button and appropriately raised to $10,000 with $5,500 already in the middle. Moncek had a standard call.
On Q-10-7 rainbow, Keating flopped two overs and a gutshot in position. He could have checked, but there are plenty of hands Moncek could call with that get beat and put in difficult spots on future streets.
A solver would want to use a small bet, with checking the slightly second-best option. EV-wise, Keating could have bet whatever size he wanted on this flop with his ace-king and called a raise. Moncek had an easy call.
The turn was a bit tricky as all the available draws on the flop missed and put two hearts on the board. Keating bet $30,000 into a $43,500 pot. In my opinion, this was a mistake.
When the board is extremely dynamic and no straights or flushes are possible on the turn, you should generally overbet or check.
Overbetting would accomplish a lot. Your opponent should fold out weak second pairs, like Moncek’s exact hand, many open-ended straight draws, and flush draws that aren’t ace-high and don’t contain pairs.
If Keating had a value hand, overbetting would get additional value from top pair holdings and better. In addition, he had a positional advantage. Thus, getting called by an ace-high flush draw would be less daunting.
So while Keating should be betting between 125% and 175% pot in this spot, he went for about 70% pot. Against this size, Moncek had another easy call.
The river was the 6, which brought in a straight with the 98 that would’ve been open-ended on the flop. In theory, Keating should have given up and checked back, but not being one to back down, he went for a 1.3x river bet. This is the appropriate bet size for his bluffs and his value with pocket kings or better.
Moncek had a huge decision and likely went with a call with his nine blocks Keating from having the nut straight. However, Keating is supposed to show up to this river with a lot more overbets than just straights, so this call is losing a ton of EV – nearly three big blinds in fact.
But, this EV loss goes down the more Keating is willing to turn standard checks into (long-term) losing bluffs, so it’s not as bad as it looks on paper.
In reality, Moncek said “not a queen” and took about 70 seconds before he made the correct call. However, being so deep, Keating could have legitimately had some ace-queen, queen-four suited, and queen-seven suited in his range that would have taken the same line.
In my opinion, Keating’s failure to recognize the situation on the turn and put in too small of a bet cost him the pot and turned what could have been an easy $43,500 pot his way into a $363,500 pot the way of Texas Mike.
Blaise Bourgeois a WSOP Circuit ring winner, poker journalist, and contributing columnist for Card Player. Find him on Twitter/X @BlaiseBourgeois.
