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Poker Pro Folds Quads To All-In Bet In Main Event

Despite Getting Great Pot Odds, Kyle Bowker Finds Epic Lay Down

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Recent bracelet winner Kyle Bowker was playing the World Series of Poker main event on Wednesday and found himself involved in a pot where he had turned quads and was betting for value on the river. Bowker’s opponent then moved all in.

Bowker was ready to insta-call, but he paused and realized that exactly one straight flush combination was a likely holding for his opponent. The board read KSpade Suit 9Spade Suit 7x 7x JSpade Suit.

According to Bowker, he opened with pocket sevens from early position and everything that happened next made a straight flush a very real possibility.

“The next player flatted; the kid who I ended up folding to flatted,” Bowker told Card Player. “The big blind flatted. The flop came KSpade Suit 9Spade Suit 7. I bet 5,000. Fold. Kid in the middle calls. The big blind folds. The turn was another seven.”

Bowker decided not to slow-play his quads. He bet 11,000. The bet was called.

The dealer burned and put the JSpade Suit on the felt.

“I bet 40,000,” Bowker said, “which was pot because I felt like he had the nut flush draw and got there on the river. And then he moved all in for 98,000 in total.”

Despite getting a great price on the call, which wasn’t even for his tournament life, Bowker went into the tank. Every summer there are waves of criticism about tanking in tournaments, but sometimes thinking about a hand for what feels like an eternity to other players is justified.

“I was just going to put the money in, but I sat back and thought about it,” Bowker said. “I was quite sure he liked the river card, and he was a three-bettor, so he would have three-bet me preflop if he had kings and he probably would have three-bet me preflop if he had jacks. So, like nines was one of the hands, but I was very sure he wasn’t made on the flop or the turn and he liked the river card. So now it’s pocket jacks or QSpade Suit 10Spade Suit, and I just really felt like he would have either three-bet preflop with jacks or not have gotten to the river with jacks. There was a zero-percent chance he was bluffing, so I thought it was really likely that it was the Q-10 of spades.”

Asked about the seven minutes he spent in the tank, Bowker said it was “way the most time I’ve ever taken for a poker hand.” The clock ended up being called on him.

“While I was thinking about it I was thinking that I was crazy, like ‘What am I doing in the tank for seven minutes with quads,’ but when it can only be a few hands: kings, jacks, nines, QSpade Suit 10Spade Suit, and I can rule out some of those hands almost for sure, it just became a fold in my head.”

Bowker exposed the sevens when folding, and his opponent didn’t show. The tabled responded in utter disbelief, according to Bowker. “They didn’t think it was real.”

“He told me later that he had it,” Bowker said. “But he said he would have also shoved nines full on the river. But you never know for sure. He could have been lying to me.”

Bowker agreed with the notion that if his opponent didn’t have the straight flush he likely would have tabled a hand that inexplicably bluffed quads.

“I felt like when I showed my hand I could see on his face that he was disgusted,” Bowker said. “I felt really confident that I was making the right fold anyway, and that just kind of confirmed it more.”

When asked about the price he was getting on making the call, Bowker said that in a cash game or a tournament that’s not the WSOP main event he likely would have found a call.

“I was getting an amazing price. You have to be over 95-percent sure to make the fold. But I was. I am playing with more confidence than normal because I just won [a bracelet]. I wouldn’t call myself a big hero folder in general, and I probably wouldn’t have made the fold in any other tournament or cash game, even if I thought he had the QSpade Suit 10Spade Suit. I would be like, ’If you have the QSpade Suit 10Spade Suit you got me. In this tournament, and being that sure, I thought I could make the fold.”

Bowker ended up surviving to day 3 of the tournament with 132,200 in chips, which was slightly below average with more than 2,000 players remaining.

Bowker’s hand is similar to the time Russian poker player Mikhail Smirnov folded quad eights in the 2012 $1 million buy-in at the WSOP. Smirnov also put his opponent on a straight flush in spades, and to this day it appears to have been the correct lay down.

 
 
 
 

Comments

Edward13
6 years ago

He said he had it, but did he.??? Love this game. What can your hand beat???

 
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Edward13
6 years ago

Quads don't think too much,quads beat a lot.Never fold quads.

 
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Edward13
6 years ago

Quads bad beat, before you turn them.??? Tournaments mess with minds.

 
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Edward13
6 years ago

Hope you make a last table comeback,keep trolls from looking in the rear view mirror.

 
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Tj3
6 years ago

It is a moronic fold. If the board was an open ended str8 flush board, ok I get it, otherwise senseless. Also they mentioned the quads fold in the one drop probably being correct, no it was not.

 
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Greed
6 years ago

Tj3 How many chips do you have left in this tournament?

 
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agehv6
6 years ago

I agree with TJ3 on this one. Unless the board is KQJTT with 4 of a suit, I will never be getting away from quads. To put someone on a gutshot straight flush draw is absurd. Soul reading with that price on the end does not seem like a good long term positive value play. I'm sorry but if someone can beat your quads, it's just not your day and you are going to lose.

I mean the guy bets out 40K on the end and the other play raises all in for 98K. The priced alone dictates that you cannot fold...

 
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Greed
6 years ago

Mathematically, yes. He should have called. But instincts are just as much part of the game. If you ignore your instincts to become just a computer, people will play off of that weakness. Stick to online poker at that point.

 
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Carl11
6 years ago

This is the ultimate case of seeing monsters under the bed. He sees the possibility of a miracle hand then convinces himself that it's there. Then when you consider the math of the call, it's a flat out insane fold. Allen Kessler would actually wake up from whatever table he's sleeping at and scoff at this.

 
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x19
6 years ago

bad fold......if opponent really has/had straight flush he would have shown.....sure Q 10 is a possibility but both spades reduces that possibilty considerably, i'd have called thinking that if i have to lose with quads than so be it.....just too many other combinations for opponent to have.Opponent could have also been continuation betting representing when perhaps only drawing or with marginal holdings to begin with......1 minute tank then call.

 
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Corey8
6 years ago

LMFAO @ "epic laydown". More like terribly over-thought bad fold.

 
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BluffTheRent
6 years ago

Maybe it was an elaborate ploy to get Twitter followers?

 
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swallsjr
6 years ago

Based on preflop, flop, turn, and river play, I think its very reasonable to narrow Villain's range down to [99,QsTs].

The initial problem with folding is that there is one combo of QsTs and 3 combos of 99 [9c9d,9c9h,9d9h]. So how sure does Hero have to be that Villain wasn't "made" on the flop or turn ? This can be modeled mathematically by weighting.

For Hero to be correct with the pot laying just over 3:1.
The "raw" 1:3 combination frequency for [QsTs,99] has to essentially be flipped on its head.

Meaning, for his play to be about breakeven, Villain has to show up with 1 combo of QsTs 90% of the time and 3 combos of 99 10% of the time.

Since he stated that you have to be "over 95% certain" to make that fold, which is wrong (its only a little over 90%), one can only assume that Hero was already inherently biased about how right he was (based on how right he thought he had to be). Meaning, he likely misweighted the hand range and was wrong.

Mark Twain said it Best:

It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

 
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StabbedInTheBack
6 years ago

I'm only ever folding quads to an open ended straight flush, and I believe he's got the goods, calling in every other spot...including gut shot straight flush and othe possible straight flushes.

 
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