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U.S. Online Gambling Market Could Hit $5.2 Billion By 2020: Morgan Stanley

Research Assumes That 20 States Will Have Legalized By Then


According to research from Morgan Stanley, the online gambling industry in the United States could hit $5.2 billion in 2020, if there are at least 20 states to have legalized the activity by then.

Right now, just Nevada, New Jersey and Delaware have legal online gambling. New Jersey’s industry yields more than $10 million a month; Nevada’s is about $1 million a month, and Delaware’s has reached as high as $240,000 for a single month.

In other words, right now, online gambling in the United States is a pretty small market.

The more states that legal the activity, the greater the revenues reaped in each individual state, as long as there are deals to combine player pools. Online gambling, but specifically poker, really thrives when there is a lot of liquidity. This is the conventional wisdom.

According to Business Insider:

Despite the huge growth potential, Morgan Stanley’s hypothesis is actually a downgrade from earlier estimates. The group lowered their online gaming estimates following “lower-than-expected results to-date” in several early-adopter states.

California is the consensus pick for the state most likely to legalize online poker in 2015. A gaming law expert recently told Card Player that the odds are very good.

It is worth noting that despite it only being September, no online gaming discussions in any of the states considering it have any chance of amounting to a bill passing in 2014.

What’s interesting about the Morgan Stanley chart (pictured below) is that the Golden State doesn’t represent a dominant chunk of the overall U.S. I-gaming market size in 2020. According to Morgan Stanley, California will be about as big as Illinois.

Despite having the country’s largest population, California will be legalizing only poker, and not other forms of casino games. Illinois would likely authorize a slew of games.

Morgan Stanley predicts that California’s online poker market will be $610 million by 2020.

Each state will approach online gambling slightly differently.