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Poker Hand Of The Week: 9/13/13

You Decide What's The Best Play

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Give us your opinion in the comments section below for your chance at winning a six-month Card Player magazine digital subscription.

Ask any group of poker players how you played your hand and they’ll come up with dozens of different opinions. That’s just the nature of the game.

Each week, Card Player will select a hand from the high-stakes, big buy-in poker world, break it down and show that there’s more than one way to get the job done.

The Scenario

You are three-handed for a major tournament title, but are currently the tournament’s short stack with 990,000. The blinds are 40,000-80,000 with a 10,000 ante, giving you a little more than 12 big blinds. There is 9,005,000 total in play and the chip leader has an overwhelming 6,700,000 of it, leaving the third player short stacked as well with just 1,315,000.

You are already guaranteed to win roughly 18 buy-ins for your deep run so far, but outlasting one more player gives you 26. The winner takes home 39.

The other short stack folds his button and you complete from the small blind with JHeart Suit2Heart Suit. The chip leader then checks his option from the big blind. The flop comes 7Diamond Suit6Heart Suit4Heart Suit. You have 900,000 remaining in your stack.

The Questions

Do you check or bet? If checking, what is your plan if your opponent bets? What if he checks behind? If betting, how much? What are the ICM (Independent Chip Model) implications of betting or checking? Is this the type of flop where you are looking to get all of your chips in the middle, or does the small pot size force you to play more conservative?

Daniel Negreanu at EPT BarcelonaWhat Actually Happened

At the EPT Barcelona €10,000 buy-in High Roller event, Jean-Noel Thorel decided to open shove his last 900,000 holding JHeart Suit2Heart Suit on a flop of 7Diamond Suit6Heart Suit4Heart Suit.

His opponent, Daniel Negreanu, instantly snap called with 5Diamond Suit3Heart Suit for a flopped straight. The turn and river fell KClub Suit7Spade Suit and Thorel was eliminated in third place, earning €181,500.

Negreanu then went on to suffer some setbacks en route to a second-place finish, banking €263,800. The winner was Thomas Muhlocker, who picked up the title and a €390,700 payday.

What would you have done and why? Let us know in the comments section below and try not to be results oriented. The best answer will receive a six-month Card Player magazine digital subscription.

 
 
 
 

Comments

AceupmySlv
over 8 years ago

Seeing what actually happened kind of makes it irrelevant of how you played the hand as you were probably getting it all in either way with an overcard and a flush draw. The first problem is just completing the blind from the SB. To me it is a raise or fold and a raise would have probably won valuable blinds and antes based on Daniels cards. If you are stuck with playing it from here, then I would lead out the flop, but not for all my chips. I'd bet 70% to 80% of the pot with the BB knowing I am probably committed here no matter what, so no reason for him to play back at me with air. Once he raises you all in, then you call and whatever happens happens.

 
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nyy214
over 8 years ago

I would check and shove over the top if he bets. By doing this you are able to win a bigger pot if he folds. Plus I think he is somewhat likely to bet the flop with a hand that cannot call a shove. If he checks the flop, then you get a free card with jack high and can bet the turn.

 
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narucy
over 8 years ago

Easy min or min+0.5BB bet, and BB raise to all-in to We call.

If gets called, turn card is blank, We check. Our opponent never fold any pair probability. turn action is pure pot odds play, BB bet small to I called, BB shipped to I fold.

Because shallow stack final table there is so many time limp-in and min-bet situation. We should mixing real hand this type situation. (This is real strong hand obviously)

 
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Blastergv
over 8 years ago

I would bet half-3/4 pot 100% of the time and go all in if he raises. On the flop, this is not a fold situation as super short stack 3 handed. You ideally want to get the money in. If he just calls the flop bet, a wide range of scenarios can be played out... but you still have 10 bbs left in this situation, so you can get away on the turn unless you do a pot sized bet (which isnt unreasonable).

 
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x19
over 8 years ago

i would have paused, looked at my chips, paused again, counted out a min bet and then act like i'm contemplating betting and then check hoping for a free turn, if he bets anything i reluctantly fold.....a better spot will certainly present itself for tournament life with 10-12 bb's left and at least 3-4 orbits to be selective.....not to mention maybe moving up the money ladder should someone else get eliminated in the meanwhile.

 
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Charles
over 8 years ago

I agree with some of the things said but I didn't hear any comments about the player they are facing. If I am facing Daniel that adds alot to the picture. I get to limp in with J2h flop comes 7d6h4h now do I shove or check,fold and try for a better hand. First off I hate flush draws unless thier connected and have a good chance for a str8.after the flop I have to be thinking these cards are in Daniels wheel house. So for me I would check the flop,if he bets I would fold and wait for a better time.

 
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stevegorman
over 8 years ago

It looks like the type of board you want to get your money in with because you immediately see you have plenty of likely outs with a flush draw and an over card, however my play would be to check the flop and see what my opponent does. I don't want to give any more of my valuable chips away unless I want to put them ALL in, which I'm not prepared to do on this hand, simply because it is also likely my opponent is holding lower cards, and may have hit the board, meaning I would have to 'suck out' to beat him. He may also likely have a 5 for an open-ended straight draw, or even a straight, which means I'm taking a big gamble on a marginal hand. If my opponent checked behind me, I would check the turn and probably check the whole hand down unless I hit my flush (in which case I'd push all in and just take what's already in the pot if I don't get called). If he bet after my check on the flop, I would likely fold. I know if he has ANYTHING he is likely going to call me and I personally wouldn't want to get called on this hand. I'm thinking I don't need to win THIS hand to survive. My other opponent is also short stacked and I'm also getting the button on the next hand, which means I can at least see one more hand for just my ante. Since the other guy is also short stacked, I may survive his elimination and duke it out heads up (even if I'm likely to finish second place).

 
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Brian29
over 8 years ago

Personally I'm check/calling in this position but mainly because of the other player in the hand. It's no secret that Daniel loves small connectors and gappers like that and this sort of situation is probably the reason as to why.

 
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AceupmySlv
over 8 years ago

I don't understand why people are saying that it matters that you are playing against 'Daniel' or it is likely Daniel could be playing some of his favorite low (suited) connectors in a hand like this? You guys do know it is a random BB hand where he also checked his option, right? It could be Ronald McDonald playing the hand as the BB is being forced to play the hand and it could be any random two cards in this situation.

 
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Edward8
over 8 years ago

In the small I assume. I would have folded and not wasted half a blind on a very low starting position hand. Especially given the fact of the SB.at this point slowing down and playing better hands for a while maximizes your profits. Chances are very good you will rise in the money. Fold and don't play the hand with the button coming soon.

 
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thebells
over 8 years ago

With this flop, heads up you would normally expect to have decent equity with this hand. Therefore, it is worth betting as it is possible your opponent may fold. This semi-bluff only has to succeed about 1/3 of the time for it to pay off. My plan would then be to shut down if called or raised (unless called and turn gives a flush). If Daniel raises here, it would likely be enough to put me all in. Based on the pot size, I would need 42% equity to call. If the three Jacks are outs, then the odds appear to be there. However, based on him having position and not raising, all pairs are not within his range. It is doubtful he will commit with just top pair on this flop. So, it seems like two pair and straights make up a good portion of his range. Obviously he could be semi-bluff raising, but it looks like a bad spot to commit when you can make $150,000 chips by raising and taking the blinds and antes in the next hand against the other short stack (or simply wait for a better spot).

 
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