There is an old joke about a gambler who returns from the track. His friend asks him how he did. He replies, "I broke even. Thank God. I can really use the money!"
Does this teach us anything besides the difficulty of winning at the track? You bet it does! It tells us not to gamble when we have the worst of it. It tells us that we shouldn't get involved in situations in which we're happy to break even.
Well, we shouldn't, should we? All we are doing is producing unnecessary bankroll fluctuations for no apparent gain.
This is an X-rated article. Impressionable children, inexperienced gamblers, players subject to going on tilt, and anyone with a short bankroll should not read it. Put it down right now or else …
Years ago, a high-draw expert named John Fox espoused the creation of zero-expectation high-variance situations. Most normal players tend to avoid break-even situations, especially those that entail risking a lot of money. Fox realized that by being willing to gamble in these spots, a player could achieve an incredibly wild image at no long-run cost. If you really gamble it up on random events and in break-even situations, you will get a reputation as an action player and a wild gambler. This will pay off big-time when you are in a situation in which you have far the best of it. It may help get you into some weak private games, and it will make loose, action-type players willing and even eager to play with you. Here is an example from limit hold'em:
You are on the button with the A
10. There is one middle-position limper. You raise. The small blind calls and the big blind reraises. Everyone calls and there are 12 small bets in the pot. The flop is Q
J 9, giving you an open-end straight draw and a backdoor-flush draw. The small blind checks, the big blind bets, the middle-position player calls, you call, and the small blind folds. The turn is the 2. The big blind bets and the middle player calls; what should you do? You have a straight draw and a lock flush draw, which means you have 15 outs with 46 unknown cards. But the Q and J could make someone a full house, the K or 8 could make a flush, and the other three eights could result in a split pot. These tainted outs are somewhat offset by the fact that an ace could also be an out. For example, the opponents might have K-K and J-10.
The technically correct play is to call. Raising is at best a break-even play. This is no time for a semibluff. If there was less money in the pot, raising on the turn and betting on the river might get your opponents to fold better hands than yours. If you are playing against opponents you play with regularly, raise. Even if you have slight negative equity on this hand, you will be rewarded in the future. You will get paid off when you have a set and play it the same way. If you end up hitting a spade and winning this big pot, mention that you have found it is much luckier to wait until fourth street to raise with drawing hands.