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Poker Hand Matchup: Jared Griener vs. Daniel Strelitz

Swords 7 5 3 6 5

Jared Griener

Win Pre-Flop Win Post-Flop Win Post-Turn

Starting Stack: 3,215,000

T 9

44.97 %

26.97 %

22.73 %

Daniel Strelitz

Win Pre-Flop Win Post-Flop Win Post-Turn

Starting Stack: 7,115,000

A 2

54.5 %

71.52 %

68.18 %

Winner!

Posted On: Mar 21, 2017


Outcome

Preflop, final table, three handed, with the blinds at 40,000 and 80,000 and a 10,000 ante, Griener raised to 200,000 from the small blind and Strelitz called in the big blind. On the flop Griener bet 225,000 and Strelitz called. On the turn Griener checked and Strelitz checked. On the river Griener bet 550,000 and Strelitz called.

Analysis

Griener’s hand was too appealing too simply muck and give Strelitz a walk, and he may have suspected by completing or limping from the small blind he might invite Strelitz to raise. As an alternative, Griener elected to enter with a raise. If an Ace were to flop, a continuation bluff might look persuasive to Strelitz. In fact Griener’s plan was probably to lead at most every flop after his preflop raise. Strelitz called with his wheel draw and leading Ace high. Griener stalled out on the turn, the previous call or the coordinating straight chilled his action. When in fact the turn was a good card for him as he still had his “overs” along with 4 new outs with the Eights to the straight. We don’t know if Strelitz would have absorbed this bet, but we do know that Griener’s check helped Strelitz win the hand. Griener returned to his proactive form on the river, leaving Strelitz to figure out if was he looking at a value bet or a bluff. If Griener had something like pocket Tens would he check the turn and return for value on the river – possibly. The overpairs might not love the repeating five or the potential for a straight though, and instead decide on a bluff catching check-call. But other hands besides pocket pairs that might open from the small blind with a raise – hands like A-Q or A-J – would they be willing to bet the river? Possibly, and remember Strelitz didn’t want to call with Ace high and be shown a better Ace-high. In the end Strelitz’s substantial chip lead, along with a good read of his opponent, allowed him to pick off this bluff with his winning hand. Strelitz correctly realized Griener didn’t have the straight, and probably would want to check over many of his winning hands with the plan of check-calling. Because his opponent was betting, and not check calling, his Ace high was probably good. Griener went on to finish in 3rd for $431,340.

 
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