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Poker Hand Matchup: Christopher Brammer vs. Keith Lehr

Swords K 8 7 3 J

Keith Lehr

Win Pre-Flop Win Post-Flop Win Post-Turn

Starting Stack: 1,680,000

7 6

38.85 %

18.48 %

11.36 %

Christopher Brammer

Win Pre-Flop Win Post-Flop Win Post-Turn

Starting Stack: 2,765,000

K 9

60.51 %

81.52 %

88.64 %

Winner!

Posted On: Aug 14, 2012


Outcome

Final table, six handed, with the blinds at 25,000 and 50,000 and a 5,000 ante, Brammer raised to 105,000 from under the gun, Lehr called in the big blind. On the Flop, Lehr checked, Brammer checked. On the Turn, Lehr checked, Brammer bet 125,000, Lehr called. On the River, Lehr checked, Brammer bet 175,000, Lehr raised to 505,000, Brammer called.

Analysis

Brammer submitted a nice check on the flop, disguising his top pair holding from his opponent who had caught third pair. Brammer sought value on the turn with a bet of half of the pot, Lehr understandably looked Brammer up as his opponent had raised preflop and would likely be inclined to buy the pot with a bluff at this point. River check-raises have exploded in frequency over the past two years, but in this case Lehr’s motivation to mount such a play is questionable. His hand had tremendous showdown value, especially into a preflop raiser that had been checked to three times, and there was no reason to try and force Brammer into a fold when he would be bluffing a substantial percentage of the time. Since his Sevens would win at showdown much of the time, why turn his hand into a bluff unless he thought he could force a fold from a hand like A-8? Instead of losing a relatively small pot, Lehr lost 44% of his stack on the play mostly due to his expensive river check raise. A check-call would have been ideal from Lehr on the river. Brammer took a nice line with his top pair, paired Kings often give a player the luxury of checking at least one street on safe boards as there aren’t too many overcards to worry about, thereby allowing their holder to camouflage their hand and induce calls or bluffs.