A Hand Matchup from the 2011 World Series of Poker Main Event

Outcome

With the blinds at 8,000 and 16,000 with a 2,000 ante, Collins raised to 35,000, Haerig reraised to 80,000, Collins called. On the Flop, Collins checked, Haerig checked. On the Turn, Collins checked, Haerig bet 75,000, Collins raised to 225,000, Haerig called. On the River, Collins bet 465,000, Haerig went all-in, Collins called.

Analysis

Collins quickly absorbed Haerig's preflop three-bet with his suited Ace, and proceeded to flop top pair with the nut flush redraw. He made a beautiful check which set the stage for Haerig's undoing. Haerig was happy to take the free card on the flop with his own flush draw. The turn gave Haerig the second best flush, and Collins coyly checked the nuts over to his opponent who now value bet. Haerig was not spooked by the check-raise, as Collins' actions on both the flop and turn did not seem consistent with an Ace high flush. Collins led out for value on the river with a substantial bet, but Haerig elected to commit his extra 535,000 behind (33 big blinds) for value rather than keep it as an insurance policy. Haerig concluded his opponent probably would not have checked a suited club Ace on the flop, while also check raising the nuts on the turn. Haerig needed the other black Ten on the river for the miracle, instead he was eliminated in 217th for $47,107. Collins enters the November Nine 4th in chips with $782,115 in prize money already locked up, and with the potential for $8.7m for 1st.