Hand Matchup Poker Quiz -- What Would You Do With 7d6d in This Spot?

I am essentially not a pro but I am going to give this a whirl and go with option D and here is why. We are obviously very deep in this tourney and we don't want to make any quick decisions. Our opponent holds about 4.2 million behind after the check on the flop. Post pre-flop betting, blinds and antes would leave the pot at close to 3 million assuming we are not playing from the blinds. with 7D6D on this turn we still only have a pair of sixes. We have 14 outs to win the hand if we are behind, a single pair, which is what the usual case here would reveal. It is conceivable A-K and K-10 is in our opponents range, even A-X of diamonds which would drop our outs to less than 9 but let's ignore that for now. He raised 25% of his stack so it is safe to assume that this player is holding a monster and will call your 4.2 million chip bet almost every time. Now at this point it sounds about right considering the pot would be around 11 million and it would only cost us 4.2 laying us about 2.6:1 on a small chance of being ahead or a coin flip if we're behind(one pair) and a shot at the title. But the real situation to think about is, WE ALREADY HAVE A SHOT AT THE TITLE. And in this situation what are you honestly beating? A-Q,A-J,A-9(v)...5s, 4s, 3s and 2s. I'm going to go ahead and exclude all garbage hands because this opponent is here, and he is here because he is good. This would propose that more often then not we are in fact behind here on the turn with a pair and a flush draw. Although we have a coin flip for the win why not just bet 1.55 million and see if he folds or if he quickly shoves or if he tanks, then shoves.Fold equity here is quite possible if our opponent really slipped up. With a bet of 1.55 million we gain the information we so desperately need and it is relatively cheap. If he shoves it is a bit of a tough spot considering we will be getting almost 4:1 but we ALWAYS MUST THINK RELATIVE TO OUR OWN STACK SIZE! If we were to shove we'd be risking almost 30% of our stack on a hand where we are most certainly behind and the bigger threat is the fact that you've beefed a small stack back into the contention for the title... Just look for a better spot.

Most of the above comments are accurate except for the fact that if you are indeed behind with 6d7d you cannot improve with your second pair. Even if villain makes a hero call with 88, pairing your 7 is meaningless as the open Kings counterfeit any 2nd pair outs. Also, if you are behind a K+ then you are drawing only to a diamond which does not pair his hold card. So, realistically, if you are behind you can only improve with at most 11 outs (if he has AcTc for instance, then you have nine diamonds and two 6s) and at worst you are drawing dead.

That was just the logical and somewhat mathematical considerations. Strategically, it is somewhat odd for the villain to check the flop with most hands considering he 3-bet a big stack when he himself was a small stack and put so many chips into the pot. He realistically cannot afford to be scared of you have a K or a better hand than him if he has JJ+. This is probably a spot he should be shoving JJ+ and hoping to be called by 77-99 and Tx as well as some adventurous QJs or maybe an AQdd. If we are symmetrically assuming that he has no reads, history, or tells on us as we do not have any on him, then it is odd for him to assume he is behind if he 3-bet us with JJ+ and not very +EV for him to check the flop with anything less than AA+. That being said, if he raised lighter than this with something like 66 then still a modest bet like 1.5m allows him to keep representing strength (to possibly fold out a 88 or 99 hand) while still allowing a hero fold on the flop, albeit after some considerable thought.

Conclusion: If we assume, as poster #1 does, that because this is the final table this player is decently skilled then we can eliminate him 3betting too light with something like 66, so coupled with his check on the flop, it is much more likely that this player has 6d7d in bad shape or is drawing quite live with something like a dry AQ. I like the check/call of a small bet, option B. It is quite spewy to just set him all in on the turn as no worse hands are calling (possible exception AQdd) and all hands that call leave you drawing at best to 11 outs. Essentially turning your hand into a bluff when you probably do not have to.

WHAT IS HERO TABLE POSITION? IS HE UTG, MP, CO?

WHAT IS VILLAIN TABLE POSITION?

FIX UR HAND HISTORY, THEN WE CAN DISCUS ABOUT STRATEGY...

IS A BIG DIFFERENCE IF HERO IS UTG AND VILLAIN MP, VS HERO HJ VILLAIN BTN, ETC...