Poker Hand Of The Week -- 5/26/12You Decide What's The Best Play |
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Give us your opinion in the comments section below for your chance at winning a six-month Card Player magazine digital subscription.
Ask any group of poker players how you played your hand and they’ll come up with dozens of different opinions. That’s just the nature of the game.
Each week, Card Player will select a hand from the high-stakes, big buy-in poker world, break it down and show that there’s more than one way to get the job done.
The Scenario
You’re on the money bubble in a major tournament with an above-average stack of 109 big blinds. There are short stacks on the other tables, but nobody is in any real danger, so the bubble could go on for quite some time.
Your opponent, a young, solid pro with 83 big blinds, raises to 28,000 from middle position and you make the call in the big blind with 10
9.
The flop comes down 8
7
3, giving you an open-ended straight draw and two overcards, as well as a backdoor flush draw. You lead for 35,000 and your opponent calls.
The turn is the 7, pairing the board and you fire another bullet worth 55,000. Again, your opponent calls and the river is the 9.
You have 1,195,000 remaining in your stack. Your opponent has 879,000 left in front of him.
The Questions
Do you bet or, assuming your opponent bets, check-call? If betting, how much? What kinds of hands are in your opponent’s range based on how the action has played out?
The Argument For Betting
With a rivered hand of top pair, perhaps it’s best to bet for value, trying to get chips from an opponent who could be holding an eight, three or any medium pocket pair. Furthermore, because you led into the preflop raiser and bet all three streets, you are unlikely to be raised on the river by anything less than a monster, allowing you to dictate the size of the bet, which should be on the small side. By checking, you are putting yourself at the mercy of your opponent, who could choose to bomb the river and put you in a difficult spot.
The Argument For Check/Calling
The goal at this point in the hand is to get to showdown. Yes, you may miss value by checking and having your opponent check an eight, three or medium pocket pair behind, but you’d be missing out on maximum value by not giving him the opportunity to bet when behind. By checking, you allow your opponent to bet all of the aforementioned hands, as well as all of his missed draws and complete bluffs. To sum up, checking has the potential to get value from his entire range, not just his made hands.
What Actually Happened
On a board reading 8 7 3 7 9 at the World Poker Tour Championship, Michael “The Grinder” Mizrachi bet 100,000 and his opponent, Trevor Pope, made the call.
Mizrachi showed 10 9 for top pair, but Pope’s 7
4 had turned trips, giving him the pot.
Both players survived the money bubble and advanced to the televised final table of six, which will be played out Saturday at the Bellagio in Las Vegas. Each player is guaranteed at least $155,571, but all are vying for the first-place prize of $1,196,858.
What would you have done and why? Let us know in the comments section below and try not to be results oriented. The best answer will receive a six-month Card Player magazine digital subscription.
Comments
Stephen5
12 months ago
I mis-read my opponents hand from the beginning. With a pre-flop raise from the middle I can't put him on 7-4 without a LOT of history, no matter how good he is.
I love the flop and I would have bet a little heavier than Grinder.
I hate that Pope calls the turn. That is scary, and apparently for good reason, though I am even more concerned that Pope didn't re-raise now that I know what he had.
Even though I am concerned, I value-bet here in order to control the betting and not get pushed off by a desperation move.
I lose, but to a really good hand that was played in a way that I really had no prayer of reading properly. I paid some money but got some info in return.
Cindy2
12 months ago
I'd push all in and hope my opponent read a J/10. It's hard not to be results oriented, because after all, aren't we all in it to win it?
Matthew5
12 months ago
On the flop, with 10-9 I am still drawing, so a bet here is a risky move, I would much rather check call than risk betting into a set like in this case or betting into a 5-6 which eventually makes the straight with the 9. Even though books like Super System dictate that an open ended draw is a solid bet, you gain more information by playing it passively and letting the other person control the action. When the villain makes trip sevens on the turn, he likely bets big or gives a tell and with 1/4 of your outs gone due to the flush draw as well as the likely one or two jacks in the muck, its easier to fold here. Now, if the turn is a jack, no question, trap and watch the villain squirm.
duhmojo
12 months ago
First, given the action to this point, there is no way I will put him on the hand he has.
He raised pre-flop. You describe my opponent as a "solid pro," but it's difficult to know what that implies. I'm assuming it means that in general he plays good cards that depend on his position, yet will vary his moves sufficiently so as to make hand-reading a challenge.
Although incorrect, I would take his pre-flop raise as an indication that he has some sort of a "solid" hand--a reasonable pair, high cards, suited or connected cards, etc.
His call of my bet on the flop suggests a few things. He could still be calling with many of the hands he might have raised with, except for possibly some of the connectors. The fact that he doesn't raise suggests that he does not have an over pair, and the board texture pretty much eliminates and flush thoughts.
So what could he have?
He could be slow-playing a set. He might have two over cards. I am surprised that he did not raise at this point, given his hand.
On the river I may have the best hand, but cannot stand a bet. Of course I also could have a very strong hand such as a full house or straight. I would have bet, and despite wanting to come up with a "better" answer than what was actually done (would like the subscription), I think Mizrachi's bet sizing is about right. Looks like a value bet. Most likely he will call if he has anything worth of showing, but there is a small chance that he might fold a hand stronger than mine and given the possibility of a straight, he is unlikely to raise without a very strong hand, so if he does, I can fold without losing too much of my stack. I actually think Mizrachi played this hand pretty well.
stray89
12 months ago
First off, I don't think flat calling there pre-flop was the best move. Considering the point in the tournament (money bubble) and the opponents skill level, the raise could have easily been a play for the blinds. I know it was middle position, but that position seems to becoming more common than the cut-off these days for players to try for steals. And since the opponent is a seasoned pro with plenty of chips, he knows how to play the bubble.
By re-raising to say 105,000 pre-flop, you'd gather much more information. You want to take the small pot there, not play out of position on the flop with no idea what your opponent has. A 4x re-raise gives your opponent bad odds to call without something premium. If he came back over the top, you dump your cards and only sacrifice about 8% of your stack.
Skipping to the river decision, I would never want to actually let myself GET to this spot. Checking here would be a big no-no. After leading out 2 rounds already, a river check just screams weakness. And if your opponent bets you, you have no idea where you are. He might think 8's up are good here based on your check, but you still can't put him on a hand. Or maybe he missed his draw and is looking to steal the pot. By making a small 1/3 to 1/2 bet here, minimize your risk. You will only lose that 100k because you are not calling a raise.
My point: this whole situation could have been avoided with different pre-flop play. You have chips, use them to get the info you need! Especially if you would end up having to play out of position against a tough opponent.