Poker Hand Of The Week -- 3/24/12

would have folded, after the flop. number of outs for the smalls out weight the higher outs. too much time and money is wasted on bluff plays. besides kings always get busted.

I invariably tend to run into a very cold deck so, in this case, I would have four bet to about $1mil pre-flop to marginalize and force a fold of a weaker hand and win a smallish pot. If he calls you have to give him credit for a decent to strong hand which reduces your variance moving forward. But in this case you have an aggressive player that already has half the bet in the pot and is trying to make a move so he could have any two cards at this point and (as was the case) hoping for a miracle flop or for you to miss so he can try to out play you post flop. Base on these factors a 1/2 pot bet (600-650K) should let you know if he hit (assuming you have some sort of read on him, and which is what happened). Obviously the insta-call was the mistake, or hero didn't consider the hands that could of been against him. The first first thing that came to my mind 9/8 with the open ended draw. But even if you analyze the villain's hand perfectly and know what his cards are, in this case you would still call. So the only mistakes I see are not four betting pre-flop and the insta-call without taking a moment to reflect on what the villain held. Outcome would be the same either way.

There is two ways to play those kings post flop. I don't hate the value min raise preflop. There is a handful of flops you can fold kk especially since the fold equity with one pair 4 handed in a deep payout tourney. Difference between 4th and 2nd can be up to 75 or 125 buyins and let's be honest folks KK Is at its finest just ONE pair. So here is my real analysis of this hand. Preflop it's was played correctly but post flop it was played wrong.

After the little blinds bets out on the flop it's an all in or fold situation for kk. At that moment you gotta ask yourself "am i willing to fully commit my self in this spot" can I fold and still be above 12-15 BB ? It's just one pair and although kings are pretty your opponent has the same decision you had when he bet out! Raise or fold? Well in this case kk missed the opportunity to "protect" either his hand by just shoving (763 flop If you got it you got it). Or by folding and "protecting" your tournament life. 4 handed the fold equity couldn't be higher and kk is just one pair

Any time you decide to slow play a hand you are making yourself vulnerable. You have to weigh that decision against probable results and gain. How much do you want to gamble?
I believe, given pot size and chip stack sizes,it would be better to try to end the hand preflop. A substantial reraise should accomplish that. tks jrspin

There is no other way to play this hand post flop. It was a cooler hand no matter what because even if you push, he's not only invested but he is aggressive with a pair and a draw.

The ONLY way to win this hands with kings would to have re-raised pre-flop all in.

A more agressive aproach preflop would probably have prevented Jensen from entering the pot at all, but that's water under the bridge. It is tempting to assume that Jensen had a strong hand (given his preflop raise) but his tiny c-bet would have given me the idea that he was at least drawing to the bosrdm and that would make my kings look rather vulnerable. Hero moves are interesting when they work out, but in this case: better safe than sorry. I would have thrown my kings away.

Mixing up your play is a must in poker, but at a final table AND against an aggressive player, I have read, and believe, that you have to actually play more straight forward than normal in order to assure that you are not playing into their comfort zone when you may think that you are 'trapping'. That being said, I can't say that I would never just call the preflop re-raise, but in this case here with the stack sizes and opponent that a 4-bet would have been coming. If he wants to continue to get cute, then make him pay for it with a much larger portion of his stack preflop.

Postflop here is a classic trap bet ... ala trapping the preflop trapper. Yes, you may still be dominating, but you 'let' him see the flop on his terms so it is probably best to let him continue on his terms ... especially since he probably has more helping cards than you do with your 'lowly' remaining 2 kings. There are more cards that don't connect to this Flop on the Turn than do so it is probably best to smooth call this Flop and continue your choice of disguising your hand strength.

If the Turn connects with the board like it did here, then you have a decision to make based on the size of the bet forthcoming. In this case here with really no hope of recovery if you get beat on an all-in stay with your line and take your medicine if he catches. Granted it is pretty enticing to know that he will call an all-in more than most players I really don't like only having 2 'helper' cards to his 9 and potentially 13 if the Turn is an 8. You of course don't know this, but you DO know that it is in his range.

This is a classic Phil H blow-up moment ... If you choose to slow-play, then slow-play the whole hand. Plus be willing to walk away knowing that it just didn't work this time ... especially with the stack sizes being similar. The math says good play, got your money in good, but I would make him pay more pre-flop and hold my line knowing that if he catches I make ICM very unhappy with me during an all-in scenario!!

IMO the only way to play against a person who is willing to 3bet with 65 out of position, against someone who has u covered, is not to let them see flops. Sure ... you may not get value from your big hands, but at least your still in the seat !!
I would of re-raised pre, but thats not answering the question.

On the flop, and thinking a flat call ... see what happens on the turn and go from there ...the 5 peels off and he fires again.. i guess i throw KK away, and kick myself for bad play.

Or Jam the flop and put the decision back on him, giving him the opportunity to throw it away (if my mind was made up I was going all the way with the hand)

When the villian C-bets about 1/4 of the pot into your kings OOP on a connected flop, and after you've played your button like you were making a steal and decided to see a flop, you're pretty much screwed. There is no way to find a fold to that bet, and not raising and trying to continue to trap with one pair is poker suicide (or just weak/tight scaredy-cat garbage). So you are bound to raise to the size of the pot because now your one pair needs to fold out drawing hands and finish your trap play and pick up 10+ BB. You have to call the villian's stack when he pushes because he could easily be holding QQ-99 and he's crushed or he's got aces or flopped a set and you get crushed. If he shoves with one pair and a draw it's a bit more of a race but KK is still a 2 to 1 favorite and long run poker is what we all play for, amirite? As reality played out, Lopes picked a course of action, got his opponent's money in with the best hand, and then lost. He was probably disappointed but he played well.

I'd rather raise again before the flop with this hand. We are 3.21 million deep and the three bet is a total of 460 thousand. Make it 990 thousand to go.

But since this is a question about the flop decision, my desires are moot. We have to take what we know about the opponent into account, hopefully our reads are good this deep. If he may be prone to keep firing maniacally, calling down on all streets might be a decision we make when each decision point is reached. His bet sizing might leave us with chips left. Maybe we can know enough for a fold on the end to be correct, or even the turn. The cards which actually came out made our hand worse and worse.

If the opponents tendencies are very known to us, and our read in the moment is strong, raise and fold on the flop can be considered, as can the raise and call which actually occurred. In actuality, the raise and call may be the plan of action which requires the strongest read, due to volatility considerations. I think we would agree there is little to no chance he is moving in with King-Queen off-suit or some other holding where we love to call off our stack four handed with everyone even at the final table where pay increases are huge.

As played, facing his small bet on the flop, I'd most likely move in right then, to fold out everything he has decent equity with. However, if he has been seeming to have been playing tighter the last few times in hands contested past the flop, I would call his bet, hope for two more small ones, and seriously consider laying down in the face of heavy action.

Good Luck!

I don't mind the flat call, especially if the villain would have been able to see right through a four bet. That being said, sometimes the best move is to just play the hand straightforward and 4 bet to at least 1.5 million.
Being as the hero flatted, I would have called down the remaining streets, due to the fact that the board was so wet and the villain could easily hold just over cards, connectors (made hand or drawing) that could turn into a big hand, or even a set. If the villain played the hand very aggressively on the turn or river, I probably would have given him credit for the straight or set and let my KK go.

Three be the three bet pre flop. If the donkey goes all in call.

When the aggressor raised pre lop I would have instantly pushed him all-in. Take this pot down instantly and get him to fold preflop.His holdings are definitely way to wide to put him on a range of cards and after he hit that flop he was not going to fold.The way he played pocket kings preflop was to passive and the villain never would have put him on that kind of high pair. I'm just a little confused because the article says he min raised to 200k but the blind is 200k so did he raise or just call because the villain raised to 460k????? Either way hand was played incorrectly before and after he was to passive against an extreme aggressor

I am fine with the min raise preflop against an aggressive player. Kinda like an UTG min raise and waiting for someone outta position to make a move. When the villian 3 bets it.....think you gotta 4 bet it to narrow his range. If he calls the 4 bet then we can put him on a legit hand. Very unlikely he will call a 4 bet with anything less than a nines or better. With the 4 bet he is likely to check to you after the flop. Anything else would be considered a donk bet......that is unless he had aces or hit a set which would be unlikely giving the circumstances. Can't see anyone risking their tournament life with the stacks so deep on 77, 66 or 33. That being said after seeing the flop......gotta push all in if he calls your 4 bet.

got the flop now....he makes a weak raise..........but we are both pretty deep....might be a c-bet.....doesn't feel like one....more like on a draw ......call....kick myself in the head for being in position that he now has control of the pot......turn comes.....have no idea where i am in this pot.....have KK but might not be a stong hand........FOLD

IMHO the only mistake that I find post flop was to not commit your stack in this specific spot. When you decide to slowplay Kings BTF you already have an action plan on the Flop and that is "If an Ace doesn't flop, Im commiting my stack to this pot". When the villan bet $270k on the flop there's already a 1.28 mill pot. The villain's remaining stack is 3.17 so if you Make a rereaise of 1.25 mil the villain problably would know that you are commiting yourself to the pot and think twice about making a move. If he does make a move all-in its such an easy call even if it cost you your tournament life because that was the line of play you choose when deciding to slow play Kings (after calling your 970k raise, the pot will be 3.5 mill and you "only" have to call a reraise of 2.2 mill more).

Now if you ask me the BTF play, with Kings again, I would try to commit my stack Pre-Flop by reraising to 1.3 mill. If he goes all in BTF bluffing with 6-5o you can't ask for a better situation than this (80%-20%) if he just call to see a flop you have the perfect commitment situation on the flop and if he just Folds preflop, you send him a clear message to not mess with you when you raise BTF giving you future stealing oportunities.

Still, the Hero got the money in good and got a bad beat. Better luck next time Hero.

I think you should call indicating medium strength along your pre-flop play. A raise will probably quiet him down, if he holds weaker hands.
An all-in has negative expectected value: will be called by any stronger hand (AA, sets, straight), two pair, probably called by pair+draw, maybe called by QQ.
Do you have to protect your hand? Not many cards that could hurt you which complete a straight or two pair.

So I call here, no significant need to rush or to protect your hand.