Poker Coverage: Poker Legislation Poker Business Poker Tournaments

Thumb_brokos

What’s Your Play? Coping With Lead Bets

by Andrew Brokos |  Published: Dec 08, '13

Print-icon
 

What's Your Play?I haven’t posted one of these in a while because participation in the last few was kind of lackluster. If you enjoy these sorts of posts, please comment on this one, even if you don’t have anything to say about the hand, just so that I can gauge the level of interest in seeing more of these.

Game is $5/$10/$20 NLHE, I have $8K, Villain covers. His pre-flop calling range is like 40% of the deck, less the strongest 5% or so that he’d 3-bet. He knows I’m opening a lot of pots and that I don’t give up easily, so he’s understandably reluctant to give me credit for a hand.

I open to $60 with JTo in the HJ (I had two very tight players sitting to my immediate left so I was opening pretty wide). Button calls, Villain calls in SB, BB folds, straddle calls.

Flop ($240) Jd 3s 4h. Villain bets $125, I call, the rest fold.

Turn ($490) 4s. Villain bets $225, I call.

River ($940) Ad. Villain bets $325, Hero?

Post your thoughts, comments, questions, suggestions, etc. here, and I’ll be back on Friday with results and my own thoughts.

Share

Andrew Brokos is a professional poker player, writer, and teacher. He is also an avid hiker and traveler and a passionate advocate for urban public education. You can find dozens of his poker strategy articles at www.thinkingpoker.net/articles and more information about group seminars and one-on-one coaching at www.thinkingpoker.net/coaching.

 
Any views or opinions expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the ownership or management of CardPlayer.com.
 

Comments

jazzypants
5 months ago

i see this as a fold or a reraise on the river, the odds of him triple barreling from first position with air or worse then j10 are less then the 3-1 you would need to call. Especially as there are no real draws he could of missed, and a turn bluff may contain an ace rag type hand.

his range here is mainly j9-aj type hands, also a4 can't be discounted. This means the ace can be a good scare card for his qj, kj or even j10, but i fold here as he may may not be willing to fold that kind of hand to you and there are still some potential aces in his hand.

 
Reply
 

Foucault82
4 months ago

Thanks, jazz. I'm not sure from what you write here but I think you did not notice that Hero will chop the pot at showdown with any Jack except AJ?

 
Reply
 

jazzypants
4 months ago

Damn, your right i missed that. Changes pretty much everything, there's not too many aces in his range. you need to be chopping 70% of the time roughly for it to be a profitable call. unsure here now, i'll wait for your results as a re-raise seems more viable an option also. I'm curious to see if the rake becomes part of your decision process now, or if its not a large enough factor.

Love your 'whats your play' blogs btw, and they have helped my game alot. Thanks

 
 

konoki_808
5 months ago

Mr. Brokos,
Although I do not post comments, I appreciate the opportunity to learn from your blog postings, and want you to continue to provide 'Thinking Poker' content on your Card Player blog.
With an 'off the cuff' estimate, the opponent has ~100 combos that could beat your hand, and ~50 combos that could be bluffs, given that you estimate the opponent's calling range pre-flop as ~40%.
The opponent is offering you ~4:1 pot odds to call. If this is a lead bet for value, is he/she inducing a call, knowing that you are reluctant to 'give up'? I am reluctant to think so, since on the turn he/she was giving you ~3:1 to call. Why make the river bet smaller, if he/she has you beat and knows you are reluctant to fold?
Since you called the turn, the opponent has to know that you have some type of hand, a pocket pair, or Jx, which called two lead bets. If the river is a bluff, it only has to work ~35% of the time to be profitable, if I understand the math correctly.
Therefore, the opponent knows you have a hand, and in my estimation wants to get you off of it with the least amount of risk, so I say call.
Again, I hope you continue to do these analyses on Card Player.
Thank you, konoki-808.

 
Reply
 

Foucault82
4 months ago

Thanks, konoki. To be clear, there was no danger of my ceasing to blog altogether - was just a question of whether I would keep doing this particular interactive feature if there wasn't a lot of interaction going on. You and other commenters have convinced me to keep at it though, so thanks!

I'm not sure how your count of bluff/value combos is derived from my 40% comment. Surely there are a lot more than 150 combos involved when playing 40% of the deck. My estimate gives you a rough idea of what his range is for seeing the flop, but his post-flop action is at least as meaningful in terms of narrowing down what he's likely to have.

Thanks again for your comment and for your kind words!
Andrew

 
Reply
 

konoki_808
4 months ago

To 'Foucault': I agree and your point is well taken. I did not state what I meant clearly and I admit that I do not count hand combinations very well. Your statement about the 40% range is significant to the number of combos at the start of the hand, which get reduced as the hand progresses. My 'off the cuff' numbers were meant as, the lead bettor's hand combos were ~100 by the time of the river lead bet, and ~40 of them would likely be ahead of your pair of JJ's. In other words, I am estimating that the opponent is value betting a pair lower than JJ's or bluffing ~60% of the time.
To be perfectly frank, I did not do an actual combo count, so this still may not be correct. I was just estimating and comparing it to the pot odds that the river lead bet was giving you.
In addition, I am very glad that you are continuing with the sharing of your poker expertise, and allowing us to learn more through your efforts.
Thanks again, konoki_808.

 
 

notCIA
5 months ago

Gotta be worth a call as your weak kicker no longer plays.

 
Reply
 

L2K4FC
5 months ago

...."less the strongest 5% or so that he’d 3-bet."..

If your read on him is accurate then he would have re-raised pre flop if he held Ax hands, well maybe not all Ax,but at least A10~ AK and big pairs.. Taken with the fact that he doesn't give you a lot of credit for hands, and that you have position on him it looks like his whole line is a bluff. You said his calling range is pretty wide. What is his playstyle, LAG? Have you seen him checkraise at all? If so then this would be a great flop for that which is another red flag to rule out really big hands. He is lowering his bet on the turn and river to try and make you think he has a stronger hand than what he really has and also to hedge losses against your call the times you do??? The question is then how much more can you extract or do you just call knowing he is going to fold to a r/r anyway? If you put him on KQ or similar and you raise to x is there any amount x can be that he will call?

This all assumes your read is 100% accurate. Has his demeanor changed recently? Does he ever change his game during sessions to adjust to the table? If there is any room to believe that maybe he has switched gears on you then I think you call and take your lumps when he gets there on the river or shows up with some other big hand.

Thanks for posting. I appreciate it. Looking forward to results.

 
Reply
 

OPK
5 months ago

Enjoy the blog, I read them and the comments even though I rarely post comments.

Maybe he walked all the way out there with AJ, but doubt it was A-rag that hit. Unless you read him for an any-ace guy, I doubt he makes that pre flop and flop bet.

Small trips? Maybe, but probably would not lead out

You have two pair plus ace kicker, and getting about 4:1 to call. Can't fold. Probably do not raise in case he comes over the top. Make the call, pull a good pot or lose an acceptable amount.

 
Reply
 

Cyd
4 months ago

There are many variables that you left out. For instance, has this player lead out before? If so, what did he have? As I tend not to open as many pots as you probably do, I would have played it differently on the flop. I would have raised to find out if I am ahead or behind then. Normally a player leads out with a smaller pair, thinking that you raised with AK or AQ and didn't hit any of that.

Also you left out, does he bet bigger or smaller percentage of the pot when he has a big hand or a small hand? His bet seems like it is either defensive bet or it could be I have the nuts and I am betting small enough so you have to call. If I played the hand you did and only had the information you gave me about them, and no physical reads, I have to call.

 
Reply
 

trentbridge
4 months ago

Enjoy the posts. I'm folding. Villain's bet on the flop could mean that he hit the flop or that he had a smaller pair and was hoping to get trips. I also think he'd have raised pre-flop with AJ so he could have KJ, QJ, or J9. After you call his flop bet, he knows that there's no real straight or flush draws out so he has to assume a jack is in your range. When the four pairs on the turn, he's still betting because a) he thinks he's still ahead and b) he thinks the four didn't help you either.
Finally the ace on the river comes the ace and villain's bet of $325. He's now led out three times with a methodical $100 raise at each level. An "auto-pilot" betting pattern is a red flag! When I see it, I know the villain is leading me down the garden path and hoping I'll follow. Fold!

"Auto-pilot betting" is when the villain has already decided on his next bet if you call. He's not seriously concerned about the next card.

 
Reply
 

notCIA
4 months ago

If villain is not worried about the next card, Trentbridge, then you are putting him on exactly pocket 4s? or am I missing something?
I admit pocket 4s would jibe with the betting, but I don't know I would feel that confident in my ability to read souls.
I like your observation, I do, but i don't know I would be that confident in this case, considering Andrew's read of villain's view of Andrew.
More likely to me, we will be splitting the pot when I call.

 
Reply
 

trentbridge
4 months ago

Villain could have a wide range of hands pre-flop to call from the SB. If he had a much better hand, he'd probably raise preflop e.g. AA-JJ, AK or AK, AQ, or AJ. I just don't see him leading out with air on the flop, turn, and river. He must know that hero will call his bets when he bets only half the pot on the flop, and less than half the pot on the turn, and a third of the pot on the river. If he wanted to shut down betting, he needed to have made larger bets.
He must have considered that hero had a jack and/or an ace but he's steaming ahead with a bet on the river. He can't bet $325 into a pot of $940 and not expect a call. If I'm hero, I'm folding because the bait looks so tempting.

 
Reply
 

notCIA
4 months ago

Trent, you keep confusing me. What do you think villain has? You ruled out big preflop hands because he didn't raise preflop. If you think he has a J other than AJ, that splits the pot with hero. I like your thinking about the bet size, but I don't understand what you think villain holds that you can fold so easily. Would villain have bet the flop with a set of 3s or 4s and bet the turn again with a boat or quads? Maybe, but might not he be inclined to feign weakness with hands that strong? It just doesn't seem that easy to fold to me.

 
 
 
Get More Poker News, Interviews, and Strategy