What’s Your Play? Kings Pre-Flop

I suck at these but here goes because the HJ is a loose player it seems to reason that the older player on the button is trying to isolate against him without raising enough to commit himself if Hero has AA or KK. The reraise from the BB seems scary but assuming he is paying attention this seems like a great place to pick up a 15.7k pot or at worst he is only risking 28k (The BTN's stack) to win 43.7k. He most likely doesn't have air but he could have anything from AQ to 99. The only person he doesn't want to play a pot against is the Hero because the other two players are laying him great odds in big pot. I would reraise to 30k and see if I could offer the BB overwhelming enough pot odds to put in another 16k...figuring if I shove I am going to let some big hands off the hook and I am only getting called by AA. This just doesn't seem like a situation where the 3rd raise has to be AA.

11:34 AM 8/13/2012

HJ has the widest range; if AA/KK/AK, probably 3-bet; has ~15% of stack at risk; loose passive so range could be suited connectors < KQsuited to 77's => JJ's;

OTB has ~25% of stack at risk; 3-bet is 'inviting' others to call including Hero {Hero would be getting ~4:1 to call}; so OTB wants callers(?) or is trying to isolate for as little as possible against HJ and squeezing Hero out; range could be 99's => QQ's and AK; reasonably sure not AA's/KK's or 3-bet would be larger;

BB has committed himself with ~33% of stack with the 4-bet; this player is not folding given the stack off against AQ with JJ's meaning that player is not afraid to bust or double; there is dead $$ and FE in the pot to make a large 4-bet profitable but that does not necessarily widen BB's range given 3 players already in the hand; range is estimated at AA's or QQ's,discounted KK's, and nothing < AK and even that has to be discounted or eliminated;

Hero: if you call you are committing ~25% of stack OOP and giving HJ/OTB an opportunity to shove for an additional ~$8k/~$14k more (after calling BB); if this happens and the BB calls or shoves, you are not folding anyway because by calling and waiting to see what happens with HJ/OTB the pot just keeps getting larger; by calling BB's 4-bet you relegate your hand to play OOP and so are you planning to fold an A/Q/J high flop for ~25% of your stack???; by calling you are inviting a larger pot with better pot odds to get your next ~35k in getting ~3:1 but you are playing a big pair against 2-3 opponents instead of head-up against the BB only; a shove helps to eliminate this possibility by forcing the HJ or OTB to possibly fold while the BB is most likely calling off your shove; you are getting it in either way so wanting less opponents meaning optimally just the BB versus losing out on ~$18k/~$22k (when they both just fold) more with possibly an extra two hands to draw out on your KK's; at this point I would want to boom or bust with a larger pot and an extra ~$40k (when they both stack off) so I would call and hope that the HJ/OTB call/shove and the BB stacks whereupon I can call off the extra ~$35k from the BB shoving over the possibility of the other two stacks; the only reason to boom or bust is it is at the half-way point and you would ~3x your stack with a premium hand that only loses to possibly less than 3 combos should one of the others hold at least one ace;

I'm not good enough to fold KK. If he has AA, oh well.

Urgh. I started reading...but I just got disgusted with everything

BB is looking at his hole cards - he has all the information: fold, standard raise (3200) ,fold, fold, call (3200), reraise (6500). BB makes a pot-sized bet. Hmmm. Does he think that size of bet will take down the pot pre-flop? Doubtful - he has two opponents left to act. So, he could have the AA, KK and doesn't fear the flop or he has QQ, JJ or AK. He'd shove the AA, KK if the flop isn't draw/straight heavy and check/fold the QQ, or JJ if an ace or king comes on the flop - absent making a set, of course!
My reaction is to call and see the flop. BB might have you beat with AA so reraising or shoving isn't prudent here. And yet you are probably beating most of his range. Reassess if an ace comes on the flop!

There are a couple things to consider here before going into what I think each person is doing. 1. You made a raise that was a littler bit larger than the table standard which should send off an alarm right away. Not neccessarily that you always have a monster, just that something is different right away. (you could just want to steal the blinds and NOT want to get 3bet ect ect) 2. Is the button a good enough player to see that this could be a decent squeeze spot given HJ's flat call and HERO's TAG image. (Hero would open something like 10 9s here right?)

Ok, so Hero makes a little bit larger raise (which i actually hate if the table has decent players, because it makes you less likely to get 3bet,4bet ect lighter) and HJ floats. I think given HJ's 22k stack, he would push all his decent (88+,A-10s+) hands all in. Since we already have a read he will cold-call with junk, we can/will assume he is doing that here. Now the question is, was button at the table and able to get the same reads about HJ? (same goes for BB) That is crucial info. If BTN and BB have that read, it makes it more likely that it's a cheap squeeze OR they could be doing it with worse value hands (10s+, AQs+). Also, one of the first things you learn when you start studying poker (like it sounds like BTN is doing) is to 3bet light from the button.

The BB putting in the cold 4bet really scares me though. At this point he cant think the BTN is folding, and he himself makes it pretty clear he isnt folding either. He can really only think that the HJ is gonna fold, and everyone else could have a big hand. Thats makes a squeeze less likely out of him. I really feel that being at the table and seeing the game and feeling the dynamics would really help me answer, but there is no reason to assume this 4bet fromm the BB HAS to be AA, even though I think it is alot of the time. I put him on a range of (jj+, AK).

Given the stack sizes and dynamics I think it's very very close, but from what im reading, a shove. being at the table could sway my decision 10-20% in one way or the other though.

The HJ is not smart enough to flat AA,so we can pretty surely take that hand out of his range and not worry about him

The button is an Old "Know it all " guy. On the surface his min raise is super scary. Thinking about it more though, I think most older guys "protect" monsters by making larger raises. Im thinking this guy is making what I hear of a lot at the table with guys like this is an "information raise".....he doesnt want to commit himself with an 88+ type hand... I just think with a monster he wouldn't want lots of calls, which this min raise will surely get. I think given all this info we have a very good chance of being ahead of this opponent

The BB has shown to be a TAG opponent. He has made one squeeze play to iso an opponent with JJ, so that tells me hes a thinker on some level. I think we can safely say his range is made up of premium hands AA,KK,AK,QQ,JJ mostly with the small chance hes squeezing a hand like Ax etc... His sizing is leading me to believe that hes committed vs the Bu but leaving himself some room to fold to the bigger stacks if they choose to jam. I think given there are lots of combos of hands in his range we are still crushing, we should be trying to get our money in this pot.

I think our best route is to tank JAM.... I would love to just flat to induce a spazz out of the other 2 but since the stacks are shallow after just flatting the raise and the dead 28k ish in the pot already makes this a pretty easy jam. If stacks were doubled I think we could flat and get tricky

Folding is out. So is raising. It's almost impossible to price the right raise because by raising to 50% of your stack, you are basically playing for stacks, and he could call off with AK feeling committed, or some other A and that would suck. Or AA and you would be in worse shape. QQ might call, JJ would fold based on the BB description/relative stack sizes I think.

I would just call and be ready to check-raise on a non A flop or bet a broadwayish flop like qj8 or something. Only because it seems like button is exactly the type of player that BB would make this move on, and you open with polarized ranges. My guess is you would be ahead of his range here.

If the A comes? Eh. I bet to feel BB out if I think I can do it calmly and get away with it. Can't check into him here I don't think, he would represent an A everytime.

Here's my stab:
Hero: Tight image, hasn't been out of line, EP raise. i think everyone has to put him in a narrow range with a pretty good hand.
HJ: would be calling wide but I think he will tighten up his range a little because Hero is coming in from EP with a raise. So, he has something playable but not huge.
Button: I think he's only reraising with a pair and maybe AK, but I'm discounting the AK possibility. I think it is more likely he would be willing to call and see a flop with AK. I think his pair has to be pretty good but not AA or KK. I think his raise would be bigger with AA or KK as this is already a good sized pot for his stack. I see him with TT, JJ, QQ and this is a "let's see who is serious, get it heads-up or take it down" bet.
BB: Why a 4 bet to only 14K? I hate to say this, but the only thing that makes sense to me is AK. He has to sense Hero and Button for real hands but thinks he's getting the right price to go to battle and he's not afraid to mix it up as he showed with the JJ - AQ match-up.
Ergo, I see Hero shoving. HJ has to fold, Button has to fold, Hero takes position out of the picture and gets his money in as a big favorite if my reads are right.