“What’s Your Play? WSOP Main Event” River

I like a bet/fold.

I feel like if he raises its always value, and nothing is value here except a FH.

If he has a FH, you lose a bet whether you check/call or bet/fold. But, if he has a second best hand you lose value by checking. If you are going to lose a bet to a FH regardless, you absolutely must bet to get value out of your hand when you're ahead.

Sometimes you might be able to argue that checking to induce is correct, but I don't even think you consider that in this spot.

Checking the flop can cause confusion for some villains where they might call a river bet lighter than usual but I suspect this villain would do the opposite and put us on a better hand which rules out a value bet.

Villain is unlikely to ever call the turn and bluff the river.

Most of the time we check/fold.

Villain is likely to value bet a reasonable amount. Check/raising isn't out of the question as we have fold equity unless he has 9Tdd but I don't think I could justify it this time.

bet small/fold. I doubt he turns a mediocre flush into a bluff on the river after we bet (he might call 50% of the time and fold the other 50%).

If he has a full house he is definitely raising the river. I do think that is the only hand raising the river after calling the turn. The majority of the time hes calling the turn with some kind of diamond.

Check/fold or check/call is bad because worse diamonds check back and full houses bet. We are losing value from diamonds that check back that otherwise would have called a bet if we choose to do so. He should not have many weird one pair hands no diamonds that will choose to bluff the river if we check.

My first question is: Why did villain call your turn bet? He sees four diamonds on the board, and he knows he doesn't have the ace, king, or queen. He has to consider you could have the nut flush because you bet when the fourth diamond appeared. Since you raised preflop, you had a strong hand so a king of diamonds is very possible. At this point, the board hasn't paired so he's calling in hope of getting a full-house? Really?
What if he's made a straight flush? (Qd,Jd,Td,9d,8d) Was the "displeasure" an act? Was his starting hand suited connectors that floppped a flush?

I'm putting him on a straight flush so the only option is to check and fold to a bet.

I think we missed some good discussion on the Turn ... and you are now trapped OOP to a decent player who may well could smell weakness in a check and try to bet you off your winner with 10d9x.

The big question is what did he call the Turn with? I really think we would have heard from a set on the Flop a very high percentage of the time since they would want to 'value' their probable best hand or just take the pot right there against multiple opponents who could cover all of the potential draws out there if still in the pot going to the Turn. Sure a set could be worried about 2 cards to come and check for pot control ... thus the stare after realizing his mistake, but I would think that he would know that he is not priced into seeing the River to draw to the boat (4000 was not high enough I guess, 2.6 to 1 in a 4 to 1 draw or less if you hold some outs). But sometimes grumpy people do stubborn things.

So we slow play the Flop, Donk bet the Turn and are now stuck OOP .. Yeah!! I think we check/call any bet under 80% of the pot and just be happy with a win if we get one. At least we get some strange looks from the people at the table for how we played the hand when we show our cards.

I think a check call will maximize value.

If we bet...

His range of hands that have us beat will raise a river bet and put us in a tough spot. His range of hands that we have beat largely cannot call a river bet and he is likely to only call off with second nut flush. So most of our value comes from a small part of his range.

If we check...

His range of hands that have us beat will make a river bet and we will lose the minimum while getting to showdown. He will likely bet the second nut flush for value on the end if checked to, and we will call. So betting vs. checking is a wash. But some of his range of hands that we have beat could be turned into bluffs on the end if we check to him. That adds value to this awkward situation.

I think check calling a reasonable bet is the best play here. Second best play is making a blocking type bet and then folding to a raise. Its second best because its so difficult to size considering his range,the board, and what he puts you on if you bet too big or too small.

It's hard to say. Some of the hands he is turning into a bluff he might think he is betting for value. A hand that stands out to me might be something like 9x9d ,Tx9d. I don't think our opponent likes his hand bet into twice but he might bet his 9 if checked to. Whether he considers this turning his hand into a bluff or value betting I guess doesn't matter too much. It's a range of hands that likely will not call but may bet if checked to.

The same might be said for weaker hands like 7x7d or 8x7d. Other non-flush hands might include AJ,A8,J8,9xTx,KxTx. Although all of these are more likely to fold to a bet or check behind as bluff catcher type hands. But you never know. I've seen some people do some strange stuff, especially when checked to on the river.

The main idea is that which ever of these hands he might decide to bet, they all add value to check calling that we don't get if we bet.