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“What’s Your Play? 2012 WSOP Main Event” Flop

by Andrew Brokos |  Published: Jul 12, '12

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Edit: Top card on flop is Ad, not Kd. The latter is in my hand. Thanks to Lacroix for pointing that out, and sorry for the significant error.

The most important information is repeated here, but here’s a link to the pre-flop thread if anyone wants to see it.

Villain 1 (UTG+1, 45K stack) is probably mid-30s, part native Hawaiian and part mountain – he’s a big guy, is what I’m saying. I don’t think he’s a professional, but he did ask me earlier in the day if my last name was Brokos and told me that he enjoyed my articles.

Villain 3 (MP2, 30K stack) is a slightly tilty, slightly grumpy, slightly heavyset bearded guy in his late 20′s. He seems like a pro and talks the talk but isn’t actually all that good. He’s on the loose passive side and too willing to play hands from out of position.

It’s level 3 of the WSOP Main Event. Blinds are 150/300 without an ante. Villain 1 open limps. That’s not unheard of for our table – maybe 5% of pots were open limped – nor for this Villain, though he’s generally pretty tight aggressive and raises more often than he limps. UTG+2 limps, Villain 3 limps, the button limps, and the SB completes.

Hero (60K stack) has Ac Kd in the BB and raises to 1800. Villain 1 calls quickly, UTG+2 folds, MP2 thinks for a bit and then calls, and the others fold.

We’re three to the flop with 6300 in the pot. Flop comes Kd Ad Jd 8d, giving Hero top pair with top kicker and the nut flush draw. What’s your play and why?

Post your thoughts and comments here, and I’ll aim to post results on Friday morning.

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Andrew Brokos is a professional poker player, writer, and teacher. He is also an avid hiker and traveler and a passionate advocate for urban public education. You can find dozens of his poker strategy articles at www.thinkingpoker.net/articles and more information about group seminars and one-on-one coaching at www.thinkingpoker.net/coaching.

 
Any views or opinions expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the ownership or management of CardPlayer.com.
 

Comments

Asaki
11 months ago

First off, I'm fairly new to the "Critical thinking" part of NLHE so please excuse me if I come across as totally off.

Based on this flop, my first reaction is that I need to check the flop; Because if we lead into the flop with a bet then any raise (assuming not a shove) will result in making a decision for stacks on the turn or river. The other reason for the check is that we are out of position. My intent here is to check-call.
The reasoning for check-call is that I'm either ahead or need to hit a flush card to win based on the preflop action. A quick call from Villian 1 makes me thinks he is either holding a big pair or trying to play loose and impress Brokos. This puts me into thinking that there is a chance he would of hit a set on this flop.
Villain 2 is another reason why I would consider check-call is that this player is loose. This leads me to think that if he stays in the hand then a fourth diamond hitting on the turn can let take his stack IF his hand contains a diamond OR that he is going to bluff a four diamond board.

My play would be check-call.

 
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nyy214
11 months ago

If I am shorter I am definitely trying to bet/get it in but given that we are so deep, I think the situation becomes more complicated.

Betting allows worse hands to call. There will be many one pair/flush draw hands that are not folding to a bet on the flop. The problem comes if we are raised. Obviously we are rarely bet/folding this flop but by making the raise preflop and by betting this flop, we are putting ourselves to a decision if he decides to raise. Potentially we are playing for stacks if he decides to raise the flop and bet the turn and river.

Checking allows us to keep the pot small while not getting bluffed off of our hand on future streets.

Based on the assumptions above, I think you have to bet this flop. I dont think you are getting raised many times on this flop because of the type of players. If you do get raised, then you can call and evaluate the turn. Betting allows you to define their ranges while keeping control of both the betting and size of the pot. Although checking will get you to showdown easier, it will win you less money in the long run.

 
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Foucault82
10 months ago

Nice post. What's the value of defining their ranges?

 
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trentbridge
11 months ago

If you raise OOP pre-flop, then you must continue the aggression.
There's no virtue in checking when you have top pair, top kicker. Play the hand in a straightforward way - bet 5,000. Flush draws can't worry you - except a possible straight flush draw. Your only concern is trip jacks or eights. When you're ahead, you don't want to give away free cards. Your real decision comes if you're reraised!

 
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Foucault82
10 months ago

"If you raise OOP pre-flop, then you must continue the aggression." I am double-checking my copy of Hoyle's but I don't see this rule written anywhere... :-)

Also, you explain why there aren't generally draws to worry about, but then you say you don't want to give away free cards?

 
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swallsjr
11 months ago

I think I would play the hand out based on stack sizes. It's still pretty early in the Main Event. We know that no villian has flopped the nuts and we have both of them covered. I would lead and plan on shoving over any raise on the flop. It's very possible in this spot that you could get an opponent to lay down the range of hands that have you beat. If not, you have outs. I want that 6300 in the pot in my stack. I'd probably fire every street after that too unless the board paired and one of my opponents came out of their seat. But of course, I play like shit and that is why I'm not in the main event.

 
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kevko_2000
11 months ago

First time contributor, Long time lurker

So think you have to get a bet in here. You are losing too much value by not betting. if you check here it should be a check raise. So I think those are our 2 options. here's why- You have top pair top kicker with the nut fl draw. This is a big hand with a lot of room to improve even if your opponent improves his hand or has us beat on the flop.
Here are my guesses at hand ranges
I think it's very likely the Mountain of a Man Villain 1 is holding small to medium pair and called pre to set mine. You insinuated that he may be abit educated in poker so I don't think he is limping an Ax hand UTG1.
Villain 3 I think is harder to put on a hand but since you said he seemed like he could be a pro but not very good he is calling after a limper with suited connectors and Ax hands. There is a chance of a small to med pair in hand also but I think we should play it out and keep that line in the back of our heads

If we bet here we are going to get raised by the flopped sets of V1 I believe and V3 is often calling with his A or decent Diamond.. I don't see this as a problem though. We have decent redraws that beat his set and most certainly have V3 crushed even though he should be probably folding to a bet - raise situation. Although you did say he makes a lot of mistakes and is loose passive. That's what they like to do... Call light and hit their hands

I think if we check here Villain 1 is going to bet his sets here for fear of the Flush or check his airballs hoping maybe to bluff catch with his pair or maybe even hit a diamond if he is holding one.
If Villain3 has hit his A then we need to tax him because he probably isn't folding unless we just go apeshit. if you bet he will likely call behind to pot control and see what the turn brings for him. I don't think we want him to fold yet because I strongly believe if he is on an Ax or even suited connectors we have him crushed here so we want more money in the pot before he gives up. Plus I think Checking here encourages our loose player who is in position to bluff. Like I mentioned above There is the off chance he too is set mining and might even think the pair in his hand is good.

So after all of that my vote is the check raise. I think betting out screams confidence and I think we want to see if V1 is going to give us any info and bet and we definitely want to give V3 some rope to hang himself. Even if we aren't ahead here percentages suggest we very likely could be ahead by the end of the hand. I think we are too strong here to be very far behind so I say build that pot so we can take down a nice one!!!

 
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notCIA
10 months ago

All three players could have caught a piece of that flop and all three players are going to know that. Hero showed strength with his raise from the BB and villains will expect a bet from him and I can't think of a reason why he would not want to bet. I don't think he has to worry unduly about being strongly reraised. A set can't feel too confident with a possible flush on the board and even a made flush can't account for the Kd as it is in Hero's hand. Only someone holding specifically Td9d could feel pretty comfortable with a made flush and a straight flush draw, but I don't think that is a likely holding for either villain based on the pre-flop action. I think Hero wants to make a bet that looks normal and confident fitting the situation, so no Hollywood, just normal deliberation and at least 4200 up to matching the pot. One 5K chip would be nice.

 
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xizal
10 months ago

Value bet your usual c-bet amount.

Villains fold most of the time.

When villain calls he is behind the majority of the time. Villain will very rarely raise even when ahead but when he does he is likely to raise a reasonable amount and we just call because we are mostly behind when he is willing to stack off.

 
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WPS22
10 months ago

I like a lead here. We were near the top of our range pre and smashed the flop. Still well ahead of both villains ranges. I hate a check call for those reasons and I'm conflicted about a c/r.

If we c/r then get 3 bet, we are at a decision for our (effective) stack. At first glance I like getting it in on this flop, villain 3 has no sets in his range and its hard to put either on a flopped flush. However, the both have 2 pair hands and villain 1 does have 2 sets in his range. Being that its so early in the main and you are effectively pretty deep, I'm not convinced this is a great spot to get it in on the flop.

Basically, even though its so hard to put either villain on a superior hand, thats what they;ll most likely have if the money goes in on the flop. Kd Jx and Ax Kd are the only 2 hands I can really see getting it in behind us on the flop. Also, you always risk it checking around w/ a c/r.

So I'd rather keep the lead, guarantee money gets in here b/c I still think I'm way ahead. If I get raised, I'm still almost always priced in to see a turn.

 
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WPS22
10 months ago

In my second to last paragraph I meant Qd Jx or Qd Ax are the only hands I see getting in in behind us. Obv you had the Kd.

 
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swallsjr
10 months ago

Use the same logic from your opponents standpoint regarding getting it in on the flop. How do you feel about your 2 pair/set after getting 4 bet all in on that board from someone who just check raised you that early in the event ? 4 bet all in, with the preflop action, easily reps a set of aces plus. any unlikely flopped flush in their range is also the non-nuts.

 
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WPS22
10 months ago

My main point regarding that was when our opponent DOES get their money in on this flop, we are almost certainly behind every hand and have terrible equity against their range.

You do bring up a good point. If we check raise/4 bet, it looks super strong and someone may lay down a set or 2 pair for their stack. I def agree that you are right about that.

I just still don't like turning the hand into a bluff. If you know you are way behind when called but can make a few better hands fold thats essentially what you are doing and I just think this hand is too strong to do that with.