Same Satellite, Similar Bluff

Last week’s double float cost me about half my chips on the first hand of the $700 NAPT-Los Angeles satellite and was not so popular with the commenters. Here’s a similar bluff somewhat deeper in the same tournament this week. Our Villain is a slightly better target: I couldn’t tell you much about his playstyle, but overall I believe he’s a better player than last week’s Villain. I described the previous opponent as a 3rd tier Pocket Fiver, and this guy would be closer to top tier, maybe tier 1.5

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 530 Tournament, 250/500 Blinds 25 Ante (8 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from PokerSavvyPlus.com

MP2 (t38150)
CO (t19145)
Button (t46070)
Hero (SB) (t15484)
BB (t40291)
UTG (t10654)
UTG 1 (t16138)
MP1 (t29062)

Hero’s M: 16.30

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K
1 fold, UTG 1 bets t1250, 4 folds, Hero calls t1000, 1 fold

Flop: (t3200) 4, 8, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG 1 checks

Turn: (t3200) J (2 players)
Hero bets t2468, UTG 1 calls t2468

River: (t8136) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t6666, 1 fold

Total pot: t8136

Results:
Hero didn’t show A, K (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won t8136

My guess is that he had a medium pocket pair, maybe as strong as T’s, or possibly paired an 8. My call out of the SB correctly slowed him down on the flop. I expected him to call any pair on the turn but fold hands worse than like JT on the river. It increases the profitability of this bluff considerably that he probably shoves a lot of JT-type hands and slowplayed overpairs when I bet the turn.

Oh and for those who question whether I’d actually play a big pair or similar hand this way and with this bet sizing, here’s an earlier hand from the same tournament (Villain was not at the table to witness this):

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 530 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (8 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from PokerSavvyPlus.com

MP1 (t9200)
MP2 (t10400)
CO (t12173)
Button (t12800)
Hero (SB) (t9417)
BB (t10750)
UTG (t18310)
UTG 1 (t7275)

Hero’s M: 62.78

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
3 folds, MP2 bets t300, 2 folds, Hero calls t250, 1 fold

Flop: (t700) J, 8, 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks

Turn: (t700) J (2 players)
Hero bets t567, MP2 calls t567

River: (t1834) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t1550, MP2 calls t1550

Total pot: t4934

Results:
Hero had A, A (two pair, Aces and Jacks).
MP2 mucked 7, 7 (two pair, Jacks and sevens).
Outcome: Hero won t4934