What Poker Has Taught Me About...Kids

While these reasons may not be correct for all children in all cases, it is besides the point. I am aware that my reasons for having a boy and girl in this specific order may change by the time I'm ready to have kids. I also understand that after having my first kid, it will significantly influence whether I want a second kid or what gender I'd prefer. I also will accept the fact that I may have two girls or two boys and love them both just the same. All of this is rather trivial to the overall point of the story so please, don't let this be the topic of your emails. I feel that it is important in that I believe most people want to have x number of kids in y and z genders. While they may not all be one boy and one girl in this specific order; it could be any combination of things. The point is that this sort of thinking helps prove my point in my blog so I added it in. It will all tie together soon, I hope.

We've now established the likelihood of having specific genders of kids. Now all of this may be innate to most and while they may not spend a lot of time thinking about it directly, the process probably comes naturally (i.e most know they have a 50% chance of having a boy). I think the reason most don't bother to think about this is that they generally will be happy either way. Most parents want to raise a healthy, well behaved, moral kid that's going to grow up and do "good" for the world. Sound about right? Now using the logic we detailed in the paragraph above, have you ever thought of the likelihood of that actually happening? Think about how many variables there are to consider. Let's say there's a 5% chance your kid will be addicted to some life altering drug. There's a 25% chance they won't practice the religion you want them to. There's a 50% chance their political bias won't equate to yours. There's maybe a 1% chance they will be born with a birth defect. Another 1% chance for a miscarriage. Another 20% they will die before you. (These numbers are estimates but they illustrate a point nonetheless). The list is never ending. In poker, we call this being high variance, meaning that it's an extreme risk play. In poker, sports betting and stock trading, one of the first principles you are taught is about money management. You don't take high risk bets if you can't afford the variance. For example if your net worth is $100,000, it wouldn't be wise to play in a poker game where you can lose $50,000 in a given night. If this were the case it would be very easy to go broke.



Having kids seems to parallel playing in the high stakes poker game with not enough money. You are taking the ultimate chance (or coinflip) and have limited control of the outcome. This leaves a lot of your overall happiness (and I would have to guess that one of the biggest factors in a parents happiness level, if it were to be measured, would be the success and outcome of their children) to mere chance. But you say, wait! I'm a good parent. I have enough money and live in a prominent area and send my kid to private school. He/she has the best chance possible at a good education and to turn out decent. Awesome! So for you guys it's not 50/50. It's 60/40, or better yet 70/30. Hell for the sake of the argument, let's say 80/20 (the 80 meaning the chance she/he will turn out ideal.) Well I'm assuming there's 5 people reading this whom are considering having kids. Guess what that means? One of you makes up that 20%.



I grew up in Orange County, California. More specifically Irvine. It is known to be one of the safest and prominent cities in the world. As a matter of fact I think we are rated top 5 (not that the rating system is accurate) nationwide for safest cities. We used to get tickets for jaywalking or for being out past curfew. Compare that to larger cities with drug infultration and crime and its a completely different world. Our school systems are known to be some of the best in the state. Our families are very well off and parents contribue immensely to the education system as well as extra cirrucular activities. The weather here is perfect and the depression rate is probably one of the lowest nationwide. One could argue this is among the most ideal places to live and raise a family.

Then I realized something. One has to be prepared as a parent for these unlikely but very possible and tragic encounters. To overlook or not accept the fact that something tragic could happen (this is perhaps the most extreme and unlikely turn of events) is ignorant. There are many more likely and more plausable negative outcomes that could come from having children, but as a parent, one needs to be prepared and accept the risk for all of them. Thus realizing that should one of them happen, the burden may be lessened. It's not to say you wish this upon them or aren't going to morn for their loss. Obviously its the worst thing a parent can endure and will take a lifetime to overcome. That's understandable, but it's an accepted risk nonetheless. All of this is not to deter those from having kids or to say I will not myself, despite the incredible amount of risk and varaiance involved.