There's Something Happening Here

Number Game



Let's take some time to look back at the numbers that both the European Poker Tour and the World Poker Tour posted during their perspective seasons throughout the 2007-2008 tournament tour schedules. Contrasting those numbers with the prior year should help shed some light on the sneaking suspicion that many in the poker world have that the poker boom has come to an end, or at least hit a recession in the U.S. market. Hopefully it is Europe's turn for a poker boom, and then hopefully Asia in the future, because looking around the tournament poker rooms of the U.S. these days, it isn't happening here.



First let's look at the WPT Season VI numbers against the WPT Season V turnout:



WPT Season V



Events: 17

Season Total Players: 8,665

Average Players per Event: 510



-Mirage Poker Showdown: 384

-Mandalay Bay: 349

-Grand Prix de Paris: 232

-Legends of Poker: 466

-Borgata Poker Open: 540

-Festa Al Lago: 433

-North American Championship: 497

-World Poker Finals: 609

-Five Diamond: 583

-PokerStars Caribbean Adventure: 937

-World Poker Open: 294

-Borgata Winter Open: 571

-L.A. Poker Classic: 791

-Bay 101 Shooting Star: 450

-World Poker Challenge: 475

-Foxwoods Poker Classic: 415

-WPT Championship: 639



WPT Season VI



Events: 18

Season Total Players: 7,390

Average Players per Event: 411



-Mirage Poker Showdown: 309

-Mandalay Bay: 211

-Bellagio Cup III: 535

-Legends of Poker: 485

-Gulf Coast Poker Championship: 256

-Borgata Poker Open: 560

-Turks and Caicos: 137

-WPT Spanish Championship: 208

-North American Championship: 504

-World Poker Finals: 575

-Five Diamond: 664

-World Poker Open: 259

-Borgata Winter Open: 507

-L.A. Poker Classic: 665

-Bay 101 Shooting Star: 376

-World Poker Challenge: 261

-Foxwoods Poker Classic: 333

-WPT Championship: 545



Next let's look at the EPT Season III numbers against the EPT Season IV turnout (these numbers were much easier to find if you want to read into that at all):



EPT Season III



Events: 8

Season Total Players: 3,481

Average Players per Event: 435



-EPT Barcelona: 480

-EPT London: 398

-EPT Baden: 331

-EPT Dublin: 389

-EPT Dortmund: 493

-EPT Copenhagen: 400

-EPT Warsaw: 284

-EPT Grand Final: 706



EPT Season IV



Events: 11

Season Total Players: 5,902

Average Players per Event: 537



-EPT Barcelona: 543

-EPT London: 392

-EPT Baden: 282

-EPT Dublin: 221

-EPT Prague: 555

-PokerStars Caribbean Adventure: 1,136

-EPT Dortmund: 411

-EPT Copenhagen: 460

-EPT Warsaw: 359

-EPT San Remo: 701

-EPT Grand Final: 842



The numbers speak for themselves, but there are a number of things going on here that give things a little bit more of an optimistic outlook on the other side of the Atlantic. The obvious one would be that while the average players per tournament are shrinking on the WPT (the numbers for each WPT event in 2008 were down, except for the non-televised WPT Spanish Championship), that number is growing on the EPT (although a few events did shrink if you look at the numbers). While most of this is thanks in large part to the switch of the PCA from one tour to the other, the fact that the event switched tours is enlightening. The PCA has become one of the marquee events of the year, with the largest live tournament numbers outside of the World Series of Poker. Remember, the EPT is sponsored by PokerStars, which is a huge boost to their numbers and stability as a poker tour. A good comparison is to think of the New York Yankees and the huge amounts of revenue they are able to produce from their YES television network. Having the largest online poker room in the world backing your poker tour gives a huge advantage to the EPT. This is definitely an area where the WPT is handicapped by the UIGEA regulations in the U.S. market, but there are definitely forces at work here that are out of anyone's control. A small note should also be made that WSOP has expanded to Europe as well in the last two years.



Another problem for the WPT is that they are held hostage by the whims of the American television viewing public and American television executives. It looked like the relationship between the Travel Channel and the WPT would be unbreakable considering they were the number one show on the network, but after season five that ended. The relationship with the Game Show Network only lasted one season, which sounded to be in large part due to a new staff of executives who did not look favorably upon poker although once again the WPT performed well with viewers on GSN. Things were not looking good for season VII until Fox Sports Net (the logical fit from the beginning) jumped in and signed a deal with the tour at what felt like the11th hour as cameras were about to roll on the first final table season VII. The EPT events are currently broadcasting in nine different countries on 11 different channels according to their website, and on top of that is the inclusion of PokerStars.tv, which ensures viewers of their tour with each video broadcast of each final table on the internet. European fans can't seem to get enough poker on television (especially the Scandinavians) while American general audiences seem to be getting a little bit disenchanted with poker. This is once again a case of larger forces that are out of anyone's control, but the old saying, "Don't put all your eggs in one basket," might be a good adage to heed here (although the WPT is starting to diversify internationally — read more below).



What's next?



Looking ahead to the 2008-2009 seasons for both tours we can see that the WPT has decided to cut back. There will be 14 events (1 non-televised – WPT Spanish Championship, which was a €5,000 buy-in tournament in May that drew 253 players) on the WPT, which is down four events from the year before. The tour seems to be pulling closer to home, cutting all international events except the stop in Niagara Falls for the television schedule. It also appears they held the non-televised Spanish Championship stop in Barcelona to keep their strategic partnership with Grup Peralada intact. Out for the WPT are the stops in Tunica, Turks and Caicos, Reno, the Mirage, and Mandalay Bay. The Festa Al Lago has been added to the schedule, giving the tour four Bellagio stops once again.



The EPT will hold steady at 11 events, with some reshuffling of the tour stops. Out are the tournaments in Dublin, Ireland and Baden, Austria while stops in Budapest, Hungary and the resurrection of Deauville, France have been added. The EPT is also notorious for adding stops as the year progresses and rumors of the possible addition of Lisbon, Portugal as a stop on the tour, and possibily one of the Baltic States or a second Scandinavian location have been kicked around. We'll see what happens as the season progresses, but John Duthie's original vision had the EPT rounding out at a dozen stops.



Only once the events start to take place will we have the official numbers, but the only pieces of information we have to work with thus far are the numbers from the Bellagio Cup IV and Spanish Championship on the WPT. Here they are:



WPT Season VI



-WPT Spanish Championship (€7,500): 208

-WPT Bellagio Cup III ($10,000): 535



WPT Season VII



-WPT Spanish Championship (€5,000): 253

-WPT Bellagio Cup IV ($15,000): 446



The number for the Bellagio Cup represent a 16.6 percent decrease in contestant's year over year at a time when almost every poker player in the world was in Las Vegas (although many were probably burnt out at that point from the WSOP). The WPT Spanish Championship numbers represent a 17.7 percent increase, but once again the growth is taking place in Europe. Look for the first post-summer events on either tour to set the tone for the upcoming season (Legends on the WPT and Barcelona on the EPT) as the numbers will once again tell the story and take the pulse of live tournament poker in two different parts of the world.



Hopefully things like larger starting stacks, favorable blind structures, and large guaranteed prize pools (The Borgata is offering a $5 million guaranteed prize pool for the championship event at the Borgata Poker Open) will be able to overcome the effects of an ailing U.S. economy. But, It is a large possibility that there won't be too much dead money in U.S. tournament fields as even the most financially-sound Americans no longer have $10,000 to spare in the name of leisure and glory at the poker table.



Hopefully a few years from now, after a European Poker Boom picks up the slack in the post-American Poker Boom era, we'll be talking about an Asian Poker Boom. China has proved to be a favorable market for anything sports related as the NBA and Olympics have discovered recently, and Macau has proved that China is a lucrative market for gambling as well. The first steps have already been taken as the WPT has introduced Traktor Poker in China, and the Asia Pacific Poker Tour (Another PokerStars-backed tour) already has events that take place in Macau, China, Seoul, South Korea and Manila in the Philippines. Additionally, the WPT just signed a deal to broadcast episodes in India.



It' not clear how many players from the U.S. would be willing to travel to tournaments in these far flung places of the world, but in the world of multimedia numbers speak loud and clear from a business angle, and considering that angle, exposing your product to 1.3 billion potential fans in China and 1.1 billion fans in India is never a bad thing.