Analyzing the Downswing

Analyzing the Downswing

Just call me Gus "Downswing" Hansen, 'cause the last month has been brutal on Full Tilt Poker. Not that I have played much or been really unhappy with my play, but numbers do not lie. Unfortunately, the fu***** tracking software is usually accurate with its calculations.

Bottom-line: I have lost about 80% of my sessions during the last month and a half. That's right, 80%! I have to ask my self a couple of questions: Should I play No-Limit Hold'em instead of Pot-Limit Omaha? Is the opposition simply too strong? Or, of course, the most likely scenario: Have I completely lost my mind and been on tilt for six straight weeks?

My answer to all of the above would be a resounding NO! So what's up with all the losing? Am I really trying to convince myself and everybody else that I have played perfect and have just been extremely unlucky? Well, it seems like Lady Luck has abandoned me for a while, but my play has also been far from perfect. I have simply been too timid. I haven't been able to pull the trigger with the same precision as usual. Therefore, I have made it too easy for my opponents to come up with the right decision.

When losing, losing and then losing some more, you sometimes start to second-guess yourself. Or to rewrite a quote from the famous Yoda (if you don't know who Yoda is, go rent a movie):

"Second-guessing is the path to the losing side. Second-guessing leads to doubt, doubt leads to fear, and fear leads to suffering."

There is nothing worse for a poker player than fear of your own shadow. Over the years, I have made plenty of money against tight, predictable and frightened opponents. Now that the tide has turned, I have to make sure I don't fall into the same patterns, but still keep my composure and play good solid poker!

Analyzing instead of playing

I have spent the last week playing ZERO hands of poker, just to keep the losing at a distance. Instead, I have done some intense studies of the hands I have played. I haven't come to a final conclusion yet, but patterns are starting to materialize. Let me give you one example of the difference between winning and losing:

We are playing $200/400 PLO on Full Tilt Poker.

I limp on the button for $400 with:

The small blind limps along. But Markus Golser, currently the best Austrian poker player, makes it $1,800 from the big blind. I call and the small blind folds.

Flop comes:

Markus bets $3,600 and I decide to call with top pair and a back-door flush draw. After all, Markus is representing a big pair and I have plenty of outs against such a hand.

The turn is

This gives me a lot of draws. Markus bets $10,800 and I have to make a decision. I have a heart flush draw, a double gut-shot straight draw and top pair - which technically speaking could be the best hand. I don't see how I can ever give up on this hand. I therefore decide to move Markus all-in for another $10,000. I know that, given the pot-odds, it is highly unlikely that Markus will fold. But I still think my hand is strong enough to warrant that play. Markus calls instantly and turns over A-A-J-J with no flush draws.

A tough call with only one pair, but with those odds, it was the right play. Adding up the outs it is exactly even money (50-50). We both have 20 cards to hit and only the river will decide who is going to pocket the $51,794 floating around out there.

River:

Another $25,800 down the drain.

Post-hand comment: I don't think any of us made any serious mistakes in this particular hand, but as we have seen many times before, the turn of a card can make winners into losers and the other way around. I just hope there is some "other way around" coming up pretty soon!

First, ThePlayr.com's Gus Invitational this Sunday. Next week, I'll be back in Vegas.

C U then

Gus

Gus plays online exclusively at FullTiltPoker.com. Be a part of Gus Hansen's poker community at www.theplayr.com, where among other cool stuff you can check out Gus' blogs, analysis, poker articles, Gus TV, Tips'n'Tricks, "Ask Gus" and even play against Gus in exclusive online and live tournaments.