HAND MATCHUP OF THE DAY

 
Lee Watkinson
Starting Stack: N/A
Winning Percentage
Before Flop: 27.44%
After Flop: 13.54%
After Turn: 6.82%
 
Doyle Brunson
Starting Stack: N/A
Winning Percentage
Before Flop: 72.17%
After Flop: 86.46%
After Turn: 93.18%
 
EVENT: A Hand from the 2004 Legends of Poker Championship
 
The Flop
The Turn
The River
 
 
OUTCOME
Doyle Brunson (with $4.9 million in chips) and Lee Watkinson (with 1.8 million in chips) were playing heads up for the championship, and the blinds were $20,000-$40,000 with a $5,000 ante. Doyle raised from the button to $110,000 with pocket tens, and Lee called $70,000 more with Q-8 offsuit. On the flop Lee checked, Doyle checked. On the turn Lee checked, Doyle checked. On the river Lee checked, Doyle bet $400,000, and Lee called.
 
ANALYSIS
Note: Lee is a great player, but he should not have called. If Doyle's bet was a stone-cold bluff, Lee would win only half the pot, and he was risking $400,000 to win $125,000. Doyle made a great bet for a few reasons. To make this large overbet at the pot, he had to know that his pocket tens were good. He bet so much as a value bet that it looked like a bluff. Doyle knew that if Lee had a better hand, he would have had to bet a little at some point in the hand. Doyle likely bet the exact right amount to get paid off.
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