HAND MATCHUP OF THE DAY

 
Ted Forrest
Starting Stack: 4,100,000
Winning Percentage
Before Flop: 58.25%
After Flop: 82.32%
After Turn: 20.45%
 
J.J. Liu
Starting Stack: 4,900,000
Winning Percentage
Before Flop: 41.09%
After Flop: 17.68%
After Turn: 79.55%
 
EVENT: From the 2007 World Poker Tour Bay 101 Shooting Star
 
The Flop
The Turn
The River
 
 
OUTCOME
Heads up, with the blinds at $120,000 and $240,000 and a $30,000 ante, Liu raised to $480,000 from the button, Forrest called from the big blind. On the flop, Forrest checked, Liu checked. On the turn, Forrest bet $300,000, Liu called. On the river, Forrest went all in, Liu called.
 
ANALYSIS
Forrest checked his second pair on the flop, knowing his opponent had raised before the flop and could raise any lead-out bet he could make, which would put him to a decision with his second pair and escalate the pot size, so he opted for a check. When Forrest turned the nut-flush draw to go along with his second pair, he led out with a small bet, which his opponent smooth-called with the nut straight, unsuspecting of a flush draw betting on the come. Forrest rivered the nuts, and his huge all-in bet was paid off by his opponent. Liu did have the nut straight, but the backdoor third club and large bet were not enough to induce the laydown. Forrest's all-in overbet did not seem like a made flush value-betting the river, and it was successful in confusing his opponent. Forrest went on to win the tournament and $1,125,000.
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