Under The Gun -- Coaching and Controversies With Alex Outhred

I finally figured out why Who Yaw thinks it so impossible to win. He has played about 1.5 million hands, and has a total profit of about $0.30 cents per hour. He is literally the tightest scardest player at the 1-2 full ring tables, and only bets 'pot' for fear of getting sucked out on.

Ladies and gentlemen, please use Who Yaw as a perfect example of how not to play. I honestly wonder why he still plays, being that he would make 10x his win rate by working at McDonalds.

Now it all makes sense!

I love it! I have an enemy.

Although Dusty Schmidt explains the poker business better, I'll have a try. Poker has much more money in it than just the results on the tables. It's embarrasing that Jon is so ignorant of the poker business. He doesn't understand the poker profit equation or the many other ways to make a living playing poker.

First, there is rakeback. If someone is trying to have the freedom of the poker lifestyle, they MUST have rackback. A grinder will make between 1200 and 1800 a month thanks to rakeback. In addition, 100/200 NL grinders add $300 to $700 a month to their bottom line thanks to rake RACES. So, the grinders I play daily take home between 1500 and 2500 each month in rackback/races alone.

Next, there are loyalty points. I have shirts, jackets, towels, jerseys and whatever else thanks to playing on sites other than UB where I was unable to sell points for cash. A top-tier UB grinder can sell back 1000 a month in loyalty points. A typical 100/200 grinder surely makes 500.

If poker is your business, you should always being earning deposit bonus cash, too. When UB offers up a bonus, I deposit more money. Why? Because it is free money. No matter whether someone wins or loses, bonus money can add between 500 and 1000 a month.

So far, conservatively, we have 1500 + 500 + 500 for 2500 a month and all a player has to do is breakeven. That's 30k a year while playing breakeven poker. If I max out a few of the assumptions we get 2500 in rackback/races, 1000 in points, and 1000 in bonus. The breakeven grinder now has a built in base of 4.5k a month, or 54k annually.

And there is more. Almost all tables at 200 max and below on UB are jackpot tables. So, every player will win less because of the additional rake, but players will also win jackpot money. At UB, everyone gets some cash if the jackpot hits at their stakes. Most of the time it hits at 50 and 100 max, but the 200 max tables hit their share, probably near 10% of time. In the first half of the year, I won almost 2k thanks to my share of jackpots. Annually, that's another 4k.

So, a 100/200 NL grinder can expect to take home 34k to 54k annually without winning a dime on the tables.

To answer Jon's post about me personally, I play poker because I can make over $40k annually without winning a dime. Like Jon, my resume includes an MBA and business consulting where I charged over $200 an hour, but I traveled the country and was away from my family. When I figured out how to stay home, I did. I walked away from nice money so I could walk my son to and from school. In my part of the country, 50k a year pays the mortgage on a 3 bdr/2 bth house, pays the car payment, and I get to spend the maximum time with my family.

If Jon can show people how to make as little as 1k a week grinding on 200 max tables, he is really showing them how to make around 80k annually when what I've just shared is included. I watch these videos hoping to learn how to make 2k a week. So far, I've learned nothing. With great play and loads of rake/race/bonus/loyalty/jackpot money, a person could make $150,000 a year on UB's 200 NL tables. I'm still waiting on Jon's 100k knowledge. Everyone can take my 50k to the bank - if they can break even.

Now that I've answered Jon's question as to why I play, let's look at one of his statements.

Jon says I am “literally the tightest scardest player at the 1/2 full tables.” Any data? Any facts? Have you checked your database?

My vpip at 200NL since March is 17.0%. Here are my top 11 opponents and their vpip's:

tutifnfrutti – 13.8%;
Acenuts – 12.6%;
Raiderduck_ - 15.2%;
Yankee_Fan27 – 16.3%;
Putnums7151 – 16.5%;
Septcpus – 15.7%;
Sadiewadie – 13.0%;
MLTMLT – 12.2%;
Red_Nada – 15.3%;
Eskoteiro – 16.4%;
Cookiekutter – 15.5%.

On UB's 200 max full tables, I am the loosest of the top 12. So, to be blunt, you are FOS. I am the loosest regular. I'm sure your data shows the same, so you must be too lazy to check.

You present no data, only opinion. Here's a fact: Your vpip is 17.7% on my tables. You'll have to enlighten me as to where I should open up my game to capture that .7% I'm missing.

Buddhism teaches that we can only know forgiveness after we have a true enemy, someone that really hates us. I forgive you Jon.

PS Since you've manage to only win around 3k in 4 months – 30k short of the pace needed for your challenge - I hope you are getting rackback. Do you need my rackback site? I'll pimp you.

PSS If I'm such a terrible player, please share with the world how much you've made off me. NONE, ZERO, NOT A PENNY! I have your money so far. Hugs.

My brother-in-law said I should back my opinions with money. I agree. Time to make some money off Jon Friedberg's arrogance and ignorance.

Jon has displayed a classic logical fallacy called the “strawman” argument. He restates my position falsely and then says my argument is without merit. He claims that I have argued that it is “so impossible to win.” I've never said that at all. Thanks to the net, we can reread what I have written and watch what he has said.

Jon claims in week one (http://www.cardplayer.com/cptv/channels/14-under-the-gun/poker-videos/4115-under-the-gun-series-premiere-with-eric-baldwin-and-sorel-mizzi) that he can win $50,000 on UB playing 6 tables of mostly 1/2 in six months. I showed using the poker profit equation (hands/100 x big bets/100 x stakes = profit) that he would not be willing to put in the hours required to make this amount because he would never win at a rate high enough to keep his hours reasonable, say 40 a week. Jon was ignorant of how good UB's players are and now he's arrogantly distorting what I write.

When Jon said he was moving up to 2/4 (http://www.cardplayer.com/cptv/channels/14-under-the-gun/poker-videos/4312-under-the-gun-how-to-treat-a-lady-with-kara-scott-and-maria-mayrinck) I said he would have to win at a rate of 2BB/100 and that this was “not easy, but doable.” So, I said he could win that amount on 1/2 if he were to work 60+ hours a week or at 2/4 with a win rate of 2BB/100. Far, far different from impossible.

PUT UP OR SHUT UP!

Jon, accept or reject this. I wager $2500 that you will make less than $50,000 in the months September thru February playing only 6 tables with no more than 2 of those tables at 2/4. Headup action does not count. If PTR shows that Jon played more than 6 tables, he loses. PTR will be the official measure of his wins. All the other ways we make money – rakeback, races, reload bonuses, points for cash, etcetera – do not count. You have to make more than $50k on the tables.

I am risking that Jon is honorable and doesn't let some of his many friends play on his account to crank up the hours or that he doesn't have a friend dump chips to him. (This is why no headup. He could say he was starting up a table and get chips dumped to him.)

I'm not going to wager a whole lot of money because I don't want my wager to influence the hours he plays. If he could make $10k or more off me, it creates additional incentive to put in the hours. $2,500 makes a few house payments, but it isn't worth grinding out 60+ hours a week for 26 straight weeks.