The "Early Winner" Myth

by Matt Lessinger

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I receive a lot of emails from readers describing similar stories. They sign up at a given poker site and start winning right away. Then some time goes by, and they lose their winnings back and then some. Then they write to me, asking why they are no longer able to beat the online games as consistently as they did before. Some of them even suggest that the site manipulated their results, letting them win when they first signed on, giving them false hope, and then taking their money back.

Let me start by saying that, if you are one of those who subscribes to that nonsense, you need to take a long, hard look at yourself. Not even Phil Hellmuth is that egocentric. Do you really think the site looked at you and said the following? "The hell with the other players at his table; I don't care what happens to them. I just want him to win. And then, a few months from now, I want to make sure he loses." That's pretty laughable. Rest assured, any reputable poker site is interested only in running an honest game. The site really doesn't care whether you win or lose; it just wants you to play.

Nevertheless, while the site isn't manipulating your results, the pattern of winning early and losing it back is quite common. In fact, I would guess that a surprising number of players start out winning, and then the majority of them go on to become long-term online losers. I don't think this phenomenon is at all hard to justify. I see at least three reasons why this recurring pattern takes place:

#1: You Pay More Attention as a New Player

I've opened many online accounts for new players in person, so I'm able to see their level of concentration firsthand. For their first few sessions, their eyes are positively glued to their monitors. They ignore all external distractions while focusing on the action. They pay attention to every bet, every raise, and every showdown, plus they notice every new player who sits down. With such close observation, all they should need are halfway decent cards and skills to show some sort of profit.

Even if a player is not brand new to online poker as a whole, his level of attention is usually higher when he tries out a new site, since he wants to take note of all the differences between the new site and the old one. In turn, his excellent level of observation should strongly improve his results.

On the other hand, I've also witnessed many players who have played on the same site for several years and think they don't need to give their full attention. They are playing multiple games while watching TV, answering the phone, and eating a sandwich. They are giving only a fraction of the attention that they once did, and then they want to know why they are not getting the same positive results. The site is not cheating them; they are simply cheating themselves.

#2: You Concentrate Harder When Building Your Bankroll Than When Trying to Preserve it

It's similar to what is often seen in an up-and-coming boxer. While he is climbing the ranks, he is hungry for a world title, and that causes him to train hard, eat well, study footage of his future opponents, and stay generally disciplined. But, once he wins his title, his good habits start to slip as he enjoys the view from the top, and that allows some other young, hungry contender to knock him off.

Poker is not too different. When a player is starting his online career, he could have any number of goals. He could be trying to improve his general poker skills, move up in limits, or simply make some extra money. But whatever the motivation, a player who is building his bankroll is usually more focused.

However, once a player proves to himself that he can build his bankroll, his intensity often begins to falter. He figures that he can turn on that ability whenever he wants to, like a light switch. If only it were that easy! What he fails to realize in his complacency is that he has begun to slowly pick up some bad habits. Usually it is too late before he fully grasps how tough those habits are to break. All too often, by the time he returns to bankroll-building form (if it ever happens), he has gone from being a winning player to a losing one.

#3: You are Probably Playing up to the Level of Your Incompetence.

Card Player columnist Alan Schoonmaker introduced me to this phrase, taken from a book called The Peter Principle, and I think it is spectacular. In a nutshell, it means that, if you move up in limits, you will eventually reach a limit where the competition is simply better than you are. And unless you can bring yourself to drop back down in limits - to a level of competition that you can beat - you are doomed to go broke.

Generally speaking, I feel that players move up in limits way too fast. They play a few sessions of $3-$6, show a profit, and figure they should try $5-$10. Some time goes by, they show a marginal profit in $5-$10, and decide that $10-$20 might earn them more money. But, because they did not put in their hours at the lower limits, they get carved up in $10-$20, and then they wonder why they started out as winning online players and became losing ones.

Simply put, they made two mistakes. They didn't remain at a level that they could beat, and consequently they didn't sharpen their skills enough to give themselves a good shot of winning at the next level.

My Suggestions

If you would like to be a long-term winning online player, you have to avoid the traps I described above. Namely, you must:

  • Recognize that you are responsible for your results. Don't pin the blame on the poker sites.
  • Give the games your full attention, whether you've been playing on the same site for three hours or three years.
  • Maintain a high level of intensity, even if your bankroll has reached a comfortable level.
  • Show that you can be a consistent winner at a given limit before attempting to move up to the next level.
  • Recognize that you (and everyone else) has limitations. When you reach your level of incompetence, move back down to a level you can beat.

If you manage to start out as an online winner, and you can stay true to these five principles, you will be setting yourself up for a successful online career. And then you'll have no reason to subscribe to the "early winner" myth.

Matt Lessinger's Book of Bluffs is now available everywhere. You can purchase it at www.cardplayer.com by clicking "shop online." You can also find other articles of Matt's in his "Bet With Less" column in Card Player magazine. Please visit his website, www.mattlessinger.com, to learn more about him.

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