The Oracle's Corner

This hand comes from the 2008 World Series of Poker main event, day 1A, and is just unbelievable. I thought I busted out on a rough hand, but this is just plain dirty. The poker gods must have laughed themselves silly with this one. One good thing about the end of the WSOP is that no more bad-beat stories are being told from every direction. It is interesting to note that most of the stories are not true, or are greatly exaggerated. It is a rare poker player who says, "I just made a stupid play and got my money in bad." The story always goes something like this: "I had pocket aces in the small blind and reraised big, and some donkey called me with 10-8 suited. After the flop, he called my all in, and sucked out on the river." What really happened was that the player slow-played his aces, and then on the river, when there was a one-card straight and four to a flush on board, the true donkey (the guy with the aces) pushed all in with a desperate attempt to win the pot. It is a very common practice for the player telling the story to round the edges so that his play doesn't look as bad as it actually was. In any event, no one wants to hear a bad-beat story, but when Moto told me this one, I thought it was the mother of all coolers.

Facts of the Hand

Event: WSOP main event
Players Remaining: 1,297 on day 1A, nine-handed table
Blinds and Ante: 150-300 blinds with a 25 ante
Motoyuki "Moto" Mabuchi's Chip Count/Hand: 24,000/A A
Mr. Tank Top's Chip Count/Hand: 28,000/K J
Average Chip Count at the Table: 27,000



Motoyuki "Moto" Mabuchi's Read

Preflop, I raised just under three big blinds, hoping someone would reraise. The button, who was very aggressive, just called, and the blinds folded. On the flop, I checked, hoping to check-raise Mr. Tank Top, which I called him because of his "wife beater" shirt. Unfortunately, he checked behind me, but with the rainbow flop, it seemed safe, and he got a free card. The turn brought a possible straight with K-J or J-8, which were certainly in his range of hands. So when I bet 1,600, asking, "Do you have something?" his call said, "Yes, I do," and I decided to check the river unless the board paired. When the A♦ came on the river, giving me quads, I was sure I had the best hand and wanted to get paid off, so I made a value-bet. He raised me, so I went all in.

Michael Binger's Analysis

With deep stacks relative to the blinds, you want to start building a big pot with pocket aces, so coming in for a standard raise is my default play unless I know someone behind me is aggressive and likely to raise a limp. With one caller preflop and an ace-high rainbow flop, you often might have your opponent drawing dead, so there is some merit in slow-playing and trying for a check-raise. However, an A-Q-9 flop has both open-end and gutshot straight possibilities, so I would usually bet the flop, especially against an aggressive opponent who might decide to make a play. You'd rather he raise your flop bet than just bet out when you check. I would like to build a bigger pot with top set, rather than get tricky and check-raise; after all, most opponents will fold to a check-raise unless they have a very strong hand. Given that he checked the flop, Moto definitely had to bet the turn, and his bet of two-thirds of the pot is just about right to me. It is big enough to charge any draws but not so big as to scare away potential customers. On the river, Moto made a small value-bet of 2,500 into the 5,575 pot (I would have bet something like 3,500-4,000) and got raised to 8,500. As sick as it is, Moto might have been able to smell the royal flush! Think about it: Tank Top called on the turn on a scary board. Most players will not do this with a set, but will instead raise to protect their hand. So, Tank Top probably didn't have a full house. He could have had a flush, but probably would not have raised so much with a pair of aces on the board on the river. And, in any case, any thinking player is not going to call the river all in with just a flush in that spot. Of course, Tank Top could have been bluffing the river, but in that case, a reraise all in doesn't get any more chips, either. So, Moto's reraise all in probably will not extract any more value from his opponent when Tank Top has the worst hand. But it does pay off Tank Top the maximum when he holds the K J for the royal. Thus, I conclude that Moto should have smooth-called the river raise to 8,500.

However, I'm not saying I would have been able to be so disciplined.

Roy Winston's Analysis

I very much liked the preflop play. You get A-A so rarely that you want to extract maximum value, so a normal raise, especially at an aggressive table where a reraise is likely, makes sense. I would have bet the flop. I like to bet, bet, bet, for a couple of reasons. When I think I have the best hand, I want to build a pot, and betting the flop asks the question, "Hey, what do you have?" Setting up the check-raise against an aggressive player when you have the best possible hand is certainly an acceptable alternative, although when he checks, I hate it. I like a weak-appearing bet of about 40 percent of the pot, which, to an aggressive player, begs for a raise. Moto's bet on the turn is smaller than what I would have opened with, more in the 1,950 to 2,150 range, but that would not have changed anything. On the river, you are begging for the board to pair, and shazam, you get the mother of board-pairing, quad aces. Some hands are just coolers and you are destined to lose. Mike brings up the possibility of sniffing out the royal flush; I'm not that good. I would reraise all in, thinking that he has a full house and I'm taking him to value town. I suppose that you could consider your opponent having a royal flush, but I couldn't. When you go to sleep at night, do you see monsters under your bed?

Motoyuki "Moto" Mabuchi's Rebuttal

I slow-played the flop to keep him in the hand, and he slow-played the turn. I did recognize that four aces wasn't the nuts, but I didn't really think he would have it. I couldn't fold quads when he raised. I guess I play too loosely!

Pro Conclusions

Perhaps leading on the flop would have won the pot right there, and it's better to win a small pot than lose a big one. However, it's hard to put someone on a royal flush at any time, especially when you have quad aces.

Roy Winston, M.D., and Michael Binger, Ph.D., have more than two decades of higher education between them. The two, with nearly $8 million in combined tournament winnings, continue to impress with consistent results on the tournament circuit and in high-stakes cash games.

1 Comment

 

GarethChantlerr
1 year ago

Michael Binger's reasoning is a bit flawed here, and I assume he knows it. Its hard to make a case for not getting the money in with quads. "Think about it: Tank Top called on the turn on a scary board. Most players will not do this with a set, but will instead raise to protect their hand." The key word is most, which could even be an exaggeration.

It is important to figure out if sets would call the turn, because, like Binger concluded, only sets on the turn make worse hands, full houses, that pay off the all-in. River bluffs from Mr. Tank Top do not call all-ins and flushes do not raise, unless they are flushes that are turned into bluffs! Either way the only hands calling the all ins are full houses and royal flushes.

Now, people do call behind with a the set on the turn in case the guy just made broadway, and they call to see the riv as a non-diamond or board pair, its called pot control. I'm not saying they always call, but a certain % of the time they do. The pot after the turn call is 5k, and each player has more than 20k behind after the turn, so getting away is possible for the set who called on the turn.

What percentage of time does the set call behind on the turn? I don't know, let's call it x, but the percentage of time they do is very close to the percentage of time quad aces' all in gets called by the full house. Its not exact because 99, TT, and QQ will laydown a small percentage of that time.

So for Binger to be right that calling is correct, x essentially has to equal 0, since the only time quad aces doesn't get value from a push is if Mr tank top is holding perfect perfect (which he happened to be). Quad aces has to push the river unless he thinks that no sets ever call behind on the turn to see the river and preserve their fold equity and positional advantage.

Mr. Binger points out another reason a set calls behind on the turn, besides the more important pot control... it looks like the caller has the nuts! So if the set calls behind and the non board pair non diamond card comes off, he can represent the nuts anyways, and possibly make those better sets fold. This is a really small possibility.... who after all is thinking of bluffing out better sets, but all we need is to show that some % of the time a set calls behind on the turn.

 

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