Prediction - Will perfection be maintained in predicting a tournament winner?by Scott Fischman | Published: Jun 28, 2005 |
 
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Right now, it is Monday, May 23, and I have just arrived back home after day one of the main event at the Mirage Poker Showdown. It was a roller coaster of a day for me, and I made it out alive with about 40K. However, I really don't want to talk about my poker ability in this column. I want to talk about my psychic abilities. By no means do I think that I can see the future or read minds, but so far I am batting 1.000 when picking a winner for a tournament - and today at The Mirage, I made the second pick of my psychic career, and am very excited to see if it pans out.This all started back in February at the L.A. Poker Classic when I was playing with Erick Lindgren during the Professional Poker Tour tournament. It had been a very long day and I was quite exhausted, but I can remember Erick's play keeping me awake that day. That was the first time I had ever been seated at a table with him, and we were there for quite a while. I get pretty excited when I get to play with the greats of poker, because I find myself constantly picking up bits and pieces of very useful information. I use all of those little things I have picked up along the way and incorporate them into my own game. As a quick side note, I have been playing on the circuit for quite some time, and there are still a few guys with whom I haven't had any significant table time. The one guy who comes to mind right away is Daniel Negreanu. I am eagerly awaiting the day that I can play eight hours with him and get the opportunity to learn something from him. So, Daniel, if you are reading this, when that day comes, will you pretty please not bust me or bluff off all of your chips to someone until at least five hours in? Oh, here's one more thing: Could you please show lots of your hands that day? Thanks a lot, pal. So, anyway, let's get back to the story. I was at the same table with Erick and this very amazing hand came down. I truly wish I could remember exactly what happened in the hand, but I don't want to give out incorrect information, so I'll just give you the summary of what happened. There was three-way action with lots of betting and raising. Erick made his flush on the river, made a huge play on the pot, and got his opponent to lay down a bigger flush.
If I remember correctly, there were about 60 players left when that hand occurred. Afterwards, we took a short break, and that is when I told Erick that he was going to win the tournament. Until today, that was the first time I had ever said anything like that to another player, but for some reason, it just felt right to tell him. He was clearly playing amazing poker and proving to me without a doubt that he deserves his recognition as one of the very best poker players around. After watching him the entire day and then seeing that hand go down, there was very little doubt in my mind that he would win the tournament.
I have a second prediction, which I would very much like to see come true. Approximately two hours after we had begun the day at the Mirage Poker Showdown, I was moved to a new table, where I sat to the immediate left of Mr. Jeff Shulman. I think I have to say "Mr." because he is my boss. Wait a second. I have a job? When did that happen? I quit! All right, so now that I have quit and Jeff is not my boss, you will be able to rule out brown-nosing as a reason for all the nice things I am about to say about him. Needless to say, Jeff has a real job, which keeps him very busy, so he does not get to play as much poker as I am sure he would like. Therefore, I have not had a chance to thoroughly investigate his skills as a poker player. By the time I arrived at Jeff's table, we both had already more than doubled our starting stacks, so we both were in a very friendly "chat it up" kind of mood. I noticed that he had headphones and an iPod, but I totally disregarded them and continued to talk to him even when he had them in use. Certainly, he does not bring music with him to block out guys like me!
Let me set the table for you a bit. This tournament had a 10K buy-in and we started with 20K in chips. The rounds were 90 minutes long and the blinds were very small all day compared to the average stack. This type of structure really lends itself to good poker and lots of post-flop play. Besides Jeff, I don't think I had ever played with any of the other players at the table. I reminded myself that just because I hadn't seen them before didn't mean they were bad players. We had a pretty good mix of styles at the table. I immediately noticed Jeff's ability to adapt to each of the different styles. He was playing lots of pots without really being recognized, and I can't really remember seeing his cards very often, which is always a good sign. There was about an hour-long period in the middle of the day when Jeff got involved in some pretty big pots with some monster draws, and it seemed pretty obvious that he was up against some pretty big hands, too. Each and every time, he managed to get away rather cleanly, and I was truly impressed. I remember thinking that if I were in his seat during that hour, there was a 95 percent chance that I would be home on the Internet, playing an $11 tournament. I am pretty sure that Jeff was saving his chips for a later attack on "Seat 5." The young guy in that seat seemed to be sucking up every chip on the table. He had played very good, aggressive poker the entire day, and had built up his stack to well over 100K, but I think Jeff and I both noticed a hint of willingness to go broke in this player. Jeff was going out of his way to get into some pots with him, since they both had pretty deep stacks.
After about seven hours of extremely solid play from both Jeff and Seat 5, all hell broke loose in a span of no more than three minutes. It all started with Jeff making a standard raise with the Q
10, which then was reraised from the small blind by Seat 5. The reraise was rather large, and under normal circumstances, there is no doubt in my mind that Jeff would have folded instantly. But I saw a little twinkle in Jeff's eye as he called the raise. It almost seemed like Jeff knew exactly what was about to happen. The flop came out 10-10-9 and Seat 5 instantly pushed all in with A-8. Jeff announced his call, and shortly thereafter was being paid about 35K.
It seemed like Jeff was still stacking his chips when this next hand developed. It was Jeff's big blind, and Seat 5 opened the pot for a raise, which Jeff called. The flop came out 8-rag-rag this time, and Jeff was first to act. He bet right out with $4,500 into a pot size of about 4K. As Jeff's chips were landing on the felt, I could very clearly and without a doubt see the chain of events that were about to unfold. Seat 5 quickly raised to about 16K and, in the blink of an eye, the action was back to Jeff, who announced his all-in reraise, totaling about 70K. Just as quickly as Jeff had gotten his all-in reraise into the pot, Seat 5 had announced his call! The hands were turned over and it was very little surprise to me that Jeff had in fact flopped a set of eights. Seat 5 turned over pocket queens, and seconds later Jeff was stacking a pot in the neighborhood of 140K. Before the dust cleared, I had time to pick up Jeff's cards, which were the two black eights (my favorite hand), and I quietly whispered to him that he was going to win the tournament. I think he was a little surprised and a bit curious, to say the least, about my comment, but I am sure it all makes sense to him now! Well, Jeff, good luck, and my best advice to you would be: Quit your job and become a professional poker player! I would love to play more often with you - but no headphones!
Play online with Scott on his new site, www.thefishtank.com. Enter his referral code, scott88, for a bonus, and look for him at the tables under the screen name ScottFischmn!
If I remember correctly, there were about 60 players left when that hand occurred. Afterwards, we took a short break, and that is when I told Erick that he was going to win the tournament. Until today, that was the first time I had ever said anything like that to another player, but for some reason, it just felt right to tell him. He was clearly playing amazing poker and proving to me without a doubt that he deserves his recognition as one of the very best poker players around. After watching him the entire day and then seeing that hand go down, there was very little doubt in my mind that he would win the tournament.
I have a second prediction, which I would very much like to see come true. Approximately two hours after we had begun the day at the Mirage Poker Showdown, I was moved to a new table, where I sat to the immediate left of Mr. Jeff Shulman. I think I have to say "Mr." because he is my boss. Wait a second. I have a job? When did that happen? I quit! All right, so now that I have quit and Jeff is not my boss, you will be able to rule out brown-nosing as a reason for all the nice things I am about to say about him. Needless to say, Jeff has a real job, which keeps him very busy, so he does not get to play as much poker as I am sure he would like. Therefore, I have not had a chance to thoroughly investigate his skills as a poker player. By the time I arrived at Jeff's table, we both had already more than doubled our starting stacks, so we both were in a very friendly "chat it up" kind of mood. I noticed that he had headphones and an iPod, but I totally disregarded them and continued to talk to him even when he had them in use. Certainly, he does not bring music with him to block out guys like me!
Let me set the table for you a bit. This tournament had a 10K buy-in and we started with 20K in chips. The rounds were 90 minutes long and the blinds were very small all day compared to the average stack. This type of structure really lends itself to good poker and lots of post-flop play. Besides Jeff, I don't think I had ever played with any of the other players at the table. I reminded myself that just because I hadn't seen them before didn't mean they were bad players. We had a pretty good mix of styles at the table. I immediately noticed Jeff's ability to adapt to each of the different styles. He was playing lots of pots without really being recognized, and I can't really remember seeing his cards very often, which is always a good sign. There was about an hour-long period in the middle of the day when Jeff got involved in some pretty big pots with some monster draws, and it seemed pretty obvious that he was up against some pretty big hands, too. Each and every time, he managed to get away rather cleanly, and I was truly impressed. I remember thinking that if I were in his seat during that hour, there was a 95 percent chance that I would be home on the Internet, playing an $11 tournament. I am pretty sure that Jeff was saving his chips for a later attack on "Seat 5." The young guy in that seat seemed to be sucking up every chip on the table. He had played very good, aggressive poker the entire day, and had built up his stack to well over 100K, but I think Jeff and I both noticed a hint of willingness to go broke in this player. Jeff was going out of his way to get into some pots with him, since they both had pretty deep stacks.
After about seven hours of extremely solid play from both Jeff and Seat 5, all hell broke loose in a span of no more than three minutes. It all started with Jeff making a standard raise with the Q
10, which then was reraised from the small blind by Seat 5. The reraise was rather large, and under normal circumstances, there is no doubt in my mind that Jeff would have folded instantly. But I saw a little twinkle in Jeff's eye as he called the raise. It almost seemed like Jeff knew exactly what was about to happen. The flop came out 10-10-9 and Seat 5 instantly pushed all in with A-8. Jeff announced his call, and shortly thereafter was being paid about 35K.It seemed like Jeff was still stacking his chips when this next hand developed. It was Jeff's big blind, and Seat 5 opened the pot for a raise, which Jeff called. The flop came out 8-rag-rag this time, and Jeff was first to act. He bet right out with $4,500 into a pot size of about 4K. As Jeff's chips were landing on the felt, I could very clearly and without a doubt see the chain of events that were about to unfold. Seat 5 quickly raised to about 16K and, in the blink of an eye, the action was back to Jeff, who announced his all-in reraise, totaling about 70K. Just as quickly as Jeff had gotten his all-in reraise into the pot, Seat 5 had announced his call! The hands were turned over and it was very little surprise to me that Jeff had in fact flopped a set of eights. Seat 5 turned over pocket queens, and seconds later Jeff was stacking a pot in the neighborhood of 140K. Before the dust cleared, I had time to pick up Jeff's cards, which were the two black eights (my favorite hand), and I quietly whispered to him that he was going to win the tournament. I think he was a little surprised and a bit curious, to say the least, about my comment, but I am sure it all makes sense to him now! Well, Jeff, good luck, and my best advice to you would be: Quit your job and become a professional poker player! I would love to play more often with you - but no headphones!
Play online with Scott on his new site, www.thefishtank.com. Enter his referral code, scott88, for a bonus, and look for him at the tables under the screen name ScottFischmn!
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