Reader Responses to On-the-Bubble Quiz

Several issues ago (Card Player, Oct. 11, 2002) in an article entitled "On the Bubble," I posed a quiz for readers, the purpose of which was to ascertain to what extent players alter their play from on-the-bubble situations to in-the-money situations.

In situations No. 1 through No. 5, assume that you are on the bubble; that is, there are N+1 players remaining in a big poker tournament and only N will make the final table and be in the money (winning $1,000 or more). What would you do with the following?

1. K-K

2. A-K

3. 10-10

4. A-J

5. 8-8

In situations No. 6 through No. 10, you have the same hands as in situations 1 through 5, but you are now at the final table and in the money (the low-level places are each several hundred dollars less than the next higher place).

For all 10 situations, the blinds are $200-$400, you are second to act with the second-most amount of chips ($7,000), and the chip leader (with $12,000) to your immediate right makes it $1,000 to go. What would you do with each of the 10 hold'em hands?

Your answer options are:

A. Fold

B. Call

C. Make it $1,600 to go (raise $600)

D. Make it $2,000 to go

E. Make it $2,500 to go

F. Make it $3,000 to go

G. Make it $4,000 to go

H. Move all in for $7,000

I received almost 100 responses, many of which included thoughtful comments and insights. And there certainly was a wide range of opinions! At one extreme, Anthony would simply go all in with all hands except situation No. 9. "I don't think you should try to just make the money. I think you should be playing to win the tournament," he said. But that was certainly a minority view.

At the other extreme, Ron said he would fold all hands (rather than take on the chip leader), although I strongly suspect that he would play pocket kings at the final table. He said, "In second place, why take any risk of a significant loss to the chip leader, who has, after all, made a big bet from under the gun?" Several others said they would fold all five hands on the bubble (including the pocket kings).

Many thanks to David Jacobowitz (who owns several restaurants in San Jose) for collecting 33 responses from Costa Rican players, which I compiled separately for comparison purposes. Generally, the 33 Costa Rican responses were rather similar to the 93 I had received over the Internet. The main difference seemed to be that the Costa Ricans played the pocket tens and pocket eights less aggressively.

I would not consider the following results to be from a "random sample" of poker players, since players who read Card Player and take the time to think about problems are likely to be well above average poker players.

Situations No. 1 and 6 - pocket kings:

On the bubble, about 15 percent folded, 50 percent went all in, and about 20 percent raised big (either $3,000 or $4,000). About 30 percent of the Costa Ricans went all in, and 30 percent raised big.

In the money, more than 50 percent went all in and about 30 percent raised big.

Note that in both of the above situations, about 15 percent chose to slow-play the pocket kings with either a call or a small raise.

Situations No. 2 and 7 - A-K:

On the bubble, about 40 percent folded, 20 percent called, 20 percent raised, and 20 percent went all in.

In the money, 15 percent called, 45 percent raised, and about 25 percent went all in.

Situations No. 3 and 8 - pocket tens:

On the bubble, about 45 percent folded, 15 percent raised $2,500 to $4,000, 10 percent went all in, and about 25 percent called (50 percent of Costa Ricans called).

In the money, about 15 percent folded, 30 percent raised big, 20 percent went all in, and 15 percent called (58 percent of Costa Ricans called).

Situations No. 4 and 9 - A-J:

On the bubble, about 80 percent folded!

In the money, about 60 percent folded, 30 percent raised, and 10 percent called.

Situations No. 5 and 10 - pocket eights:

On the bubble, about 75 percent folded!

In the money, 30 percent folded, 20 percent called, 30 percent raised $2,000-$4,000, and 20 percent went all in. In contrast, 60 percent of Costa Ricans folded (probably my choice).

All in all, it was clear that a large majority of all respondents were less aggressive and more cautious when on the bubble - a small number even folded pocket kings! Although many lesser hands should be played cautiously to ensure a "payday," I think folding pocket kings is carrying it too far. If I pushed my stack in and the chip leader called me (which would be less than likely), I would be happy to risk busting out for a 2-to-1 (or better) shot at doubling up (which would greatly increase my prize money expectation). It clearly would be a waste of positive expectation to fold kings (I would be unlikely to have better percentages going for me in subsequent endeavors).

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