Here's a little five-question multiple-choice quiz. After you answer each question, indicate on a scale of 1 to 100 whether you think the decision is close or clear (1 for very close, 100 for very clear).
Limit hold'em poker:
1. You're in first position after the blinds with the 9
8. You should:
A. Fold
B. Call
C. Raise
Close (1) to clear (100) ___
2. You're on the button, everyone has folded, and again you have the 9 8. You should:
A. Fold
B. Call
C. Raise
Close (1) to clear (100) ___
Blackjack:
You are not a card counter, but if you had to guess, you'd say more low cards were gone than high cards.
3. You have 4-3 (7); you hit and get a 9 (16) and the dealer shows a king. You should:
A. Hit
B. Stand
Close (1) to clear (100) ___
4. You have 4-3 (7); you hit and get a 9 (16) and the dealer shows a 7. You should:
A. Hit
B. Stand
Close (1) to clear (100) ___
5. You are at the final table of a poker tournament. You know your opponent to be a solid small-stakes player. He got into the tournament by winning a satellite. You believe that you play a little better, but you're not as hungry. First prize is $14,000 and second is $7,000. The blinds are $500-$1,000 and your opponent has $16,000 in chips to your $14,000, and he offers to split the first and second prizes. You should:
A. Accept his offer and take a sure $10,500.
B. Reject his offer and gamble to see if you get $14,000 or $7,000.
Close (1) to clear (100) ___
There are several reasons why it's important to know if a decision is close or clear-cut. The main reason is fundamental to all decisions, in games and in life. You want to get the important ones right. What makes a decision important? If making the correct choice results in a substantial increase in your equity (expectation), the decision is important. One other key characteristic of important decisions is that they have a clearly correct answer. By this I mean that one choice has a large mathematical advantage over another. Why is this crucial? Let's look at a trivial example: You have a chance to win $100 by making the correct choice between strategy A and strategy B. In case No. 1 the correct strategy will work 51 percent of the time, and in case No. 2 it will work 90 percent of the time. A correct decision in case No. 1 is worth $2 (.51- .49 = .02; .02 times 100 = 2). A correct decision in case No. 2 is worth $80 (.90 – .10 = .80; .80 times 100 = 80). It is much more important to get the $80 decision right than it is the $2 decision.
The second reason why it's important to know if a decision is close relates to discipline. Most of us have a tendency to occasionally (frequently?) do things we know aren't right. For example, we play hands that shouldn't be played. Boredom is one common cause. If you do this in situations in which the correct play is clear, you are making a big mistake. If you do it in situations in which the correct play is close, you are making only a small mistake. In fact, if you've misevaluated it, you might even be doing the right thing by accident. In some games, you face the same decision frequently and it is important to get it right, since even small gains in equity start to add up over time. Blackjack and backgammon are examples. Poker is different. Doing things differently in the same situation will confuse your opponents. Create this confusion in those situations in which there is not much difference in equity between two plays. (See the discussion of question No. 2 below.)
This brings us to the last reason why it's important to know if a decision is close or not. You are in a game and are unsure of what is the right thing to do. You do something. On that particular hand, it works or it doesn't, but later you wonder if you did the right thing. Do you have a procedure for analyzing it? I hope so, but if not, start to develop one, and I'll write something about methods of analysis in a future column. Now that I've made you read through all of this, here are my quiz answers:
1. A (fold), very clear (99)
2. C (raise) or A (fold), and it's close (50). It depends on such factors as how likely the blinds are to protect their investment, you table image, and so on. This is a good spot to randomize your play and hopefully confuse your opponents.
3. B (stand), and it's close (51). The dealer's most likely hand is 20, which you can beat with a 5 and tie with a 4 (one and a half outs). This is almost equally balanced by his chances of having a low card in the hole and busting.
4. A (hit), and it's not close (100). Now, the dealer's most likely hand is 17, and an ace will tie and a deuce, 3, 4, or 5 will win (four and a half outs). This is much greater than his chance of busting.
5. This is a trick question. The choice between A and B is close, but there is a better solution. The correct answer is to reject his offer and see if you can negotiate a better deal. In the first place, the money probably means more to him than it does to you. In the second place, he's already "shown you his holecards." You know what he'll accept, and if he won't agree to anything more favorable to you, you can always accept his initial offer.