The Poker Cynic

Getting Unlucky
Most tournament poker players, including some of the more successful pros, are happy to explain how unlucky they are when they lose. No, this doesn't mean they think they are lucky when they win, but they have a selective memory that allows them to forget the times when they outdraw opponents, and remember only the times they get outdrawn. Maybe players complain in the cash games, too, but the result of a bad beat in a tournament is always felt more keenly. Often, it results in one getting knocked out, so even the chance of recovery is denied.

Let's assume that the successful pro who complains is just a whiner, someone who understands what is really happening. The question remains, then, whether the average player knows why he keeps getting outdrawn.

Players often have a sound grasp of the mathematics of the game. They are aware of the odds of making a hand, aware of the odds in a heads-up showdown, and aware of the odds of getting beat. So, when they turn over A-K against their opponent's A-rag, they know they are going to win about 75 percent of the time. This is a great spot to get your money in, and can only lead to a healthy profit - in the long run.

That innocuous phrase, in the long run, is the crux of the matter. Just how long is the long run? Knowing the answer to that question is vital in tournaments. Understanding the nature of probability enables one to be able to see the big picture. It is only when you combine understanding of a hand's value with understanding the fluctuations that you can expect in the course of a tournament that it's possible to develop a strategy that will be successful.

The nature of hold'em means that you are never that far ahead of your opponents. If you are a 60 percent favorite in a hand, you are doing well. Yes, you can be as much as an 80 percent favorite, but it won't happen nearly enough. Most of the time, your advantage will be fragile and you will find yourself getting outdrawn in key situations again and again.

This leaves you with two choices.

Your first choice is to play your hands in isolation, eventually get unlucky, and bust out of the tournament. Usually, this will be against some "lunatic" playing 10-3 offsuit. You will then be able to moan about your bad luck and the ignorance of players today.

Your second choice is to be aware of the nature of probability, and to understand that playing in the same manner as you'd play in a cash game will not yield the same results. It may seem obvious that when you are fifty-fifty in a showdown, you will win half the time. What is not obvious is the probability of losing this type of showdown three times in a row, and possibly more. The more often you play, the more likely you are to sustain long bad - and good - runs. So, when you lose three coin flips in a row, it's not because you were born under an unlucky star; it's because the laws of probability are in operation. Once you appreciate how vulnerable even your good hands are, you can see the need for a strategy that takes this into account.

The odds are like theoretical values that tell you what should happen. Probability is the parameters within which you are working as a player. Even in a cash game this should inform your strategy, enabling you to decide what size bankroll is appropriate for the game you are playing. If you are undercapitalized in a game, you are not giving yourself the maximum chance of success, and in some situations you are guaranteeing your failure. The probability of your good hands winning allows you to estimate how many chances you need to give yourself to ensure success. This figure varies from game to game, and from player to player, but the principle is the same. This perspective seems to be more apparent in cash games than in tournaments, where fewer people see the big picture. Maybe it's because tournaments seem like unique events, as opposed to cash play, which can seem like one continuous game. Whatever the reason, tournament strategy seems to be far more esoteric and more difficult to grasp.

You don't have to be a pessimist, but don't expect your good hands to stand up. They will, often enough to justify your play, but they will also appear to get beat more often than you would like. Accepting the likelihood of losing has the benefit of softening the blow if it comes, as well as giving you a clearer view of the big picture.

Everyone gets unlucky, but not everyone knows why.

Ashley Alterman is a British professional poker player who lived and worked in Paris before returning to London.